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The Welfare Cost of Permanent Inflation and Optimal Short-Run Economic Policy

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  • Feldstein, Martin S

Abstract

At a minimum, this paper should serve as a warning against too easy an acceptance of the view that the costs of sustained inflation are small relative to the costs of unemployment. If a temporary reduction in unemployment causes a permanent increase in inflation, the present value of the resulting future welfare costs may well exceed the temporary short-run gain. Previous analyses have underestimated the cost of a permanent increase in the inflation rate because they have ignored the growth of the economy and therefore the growth of the future instantaneous welfare costs. In the important case in which the growth of aggregate income exceeds the social discount rate, no reduction in unemployment can justify any permanent increase in the rate of inflation. Quite the contrary, if the inflation rate is above its optimal level, the economy should then be deflated to reduce the inflation rate regardless of the temporary consequences for unemployment.
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Suggested Citation

  • Feldstein, Martin S, 1979. "The Welfare Cost of Permanent Inflation and Optimal Short-Run Economic Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(4), pages 749-768, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:v:87:y:1979:i:4:p:749-68
    DOI: 10.1086/260791
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    Cited by:

    1. Willem H. Buiter & Marcus H. Miller, 1983. "Costs and Benefits of an Anti-Inflationary Policy: Questions and Issues," NBER Working Papers 1252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Eduardo Wiesner, 2008. "The Political Economy of Macroeconomic Policy Reform in Latin America," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12913, August.
    3. T.P. Koirala, Ph.D, 2010. "Welfare Costs of Inflation in Nepal: An Empirical Analysis," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 22(1), pages 57-68, April.
    4. Michael R. Darby & James R. Lothian, 1983. "Conclusions on the International Transmission of Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: The International Transmission of Inflation, pages 491-524, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. T.P. Koirala Ph.D, 2010. "Welfare Costs of Inflation in Nepal: An Empirical Analysis," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 22, pages 57-68, April.
    6. Stanley Fischer & Franco Modigliani, 1978. "Towards an understanding of the real effects and costs of inflation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 114(4), pages 810-833, December.
    7. Darrel Cohen & Kevin Hassett & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1999. "Inflation and the User Cost of Capital: Does Inflation Still Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: The Costs and Benefits of Price Stability, pages 199-234, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Etro, Federico, 2017. "Research in economics and macroeconomics," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 373-383.
    9. Matthew D. Shapiro, 1994. "Federal Reserve Policy: Cause and Effect," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 307-334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Martin Feldstein, 1999. "Introduction to "Costs and Benefits of Price Stability, The"," NBER Chapters, in: The Costs and Benefits of Price Stability, pages 1-8, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Jagjit S. Chadha, 2009. "Monetary Policy Analysis: An Undergraduate Toolkit," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Giuseppe Fontana & Mark Setterfield (ed.), Macroeconomic Theory and Macroeconomic Pedagogy, chapter 3, pages 55-75, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. Buiter, Willem, 2006. "How Robust is the New Conventional Wisdom? The Surprising Fragility of the Theoretical Foundations of Inflation Targeting and C," CEPR Discussion Papers 5772, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Martin S. Feldstein, 1997. "The Costs and Benefits of Going from Low Inflation to Price Stability," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 123-166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Martin S. Feldstein, 1999. "Capital Income Taxes and the Benefit of Price Stability," NBER Chapters, in: The Costs and Benefits of Price Stability, pages 9-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Chuang, Shi-Feng & Huo, Teh-Ming, 2003. "A note on the optimum quantity of money," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 269-276, May.
    16. David Fielding & Paul Mizen, 2008. "Evidence on the Functional Relationship between Relative Price Variability and Inflation with Implications for Monetary Policy," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(300), pages 683-699, November.
    17. Hasan Bakhshi & Andrew Haldane & Neal Hatch, 1998. "Some costs and benefits of price stability in the UK," Bank of England working papers 78, Bank of England.

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