Federal Reserve Policy: Cause and Effect
In: Monetary Policy
Romer and Romer (1989,1990,1992) identify dates where the Federal Reserve appears to have shifted its policy towards reducing the rate of inflation. This paper examines the economic context that drives this decision. It finds that the Fed appears to weigh the outlook for unemployment as well as that for inflation in making its decision about disinflation. Previous work has not examined the course of inflation over the disinflations. This paper finds responses of the inflation rate to the "disinflations" only in a specification where the effects of the policy are presumed to be permanent Moreover, the Volcker disinflation is found to be the only "disinflation" to reduce inflation permanently. The disinflation after the 1973 OPEC price increases was effective, but only temporarily. Other disinflations had negligible impacts on the rate of inflation over all horizons. Variables measuring the expected present discounted values of unemployment and inflation are constructed. These variables are used in a discrete-choice model to explain the Fed's decision to disinflate. This model does a fairly good job of explaining the Fed's decisions. Both inflation and unemployment drive the Fed's decision. For some episodes, notably in the 1970's, inflation is the main variable driving the decision. In the 1969 and 1988 episodes, unemployment matters more.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
|This chapter was published in: ||This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number
8336.||Handle:|| RePEc:nbr:nberch:8336||Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer., 1989.
"Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz,"
Economics Working Papers
89-107, University of California at Berkeley.
- Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 121-184 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Working Papers 2966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Romer, Christina D. & Romer, David H., 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5h07k8vf, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:8336. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.