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The Dynamic Effects of Disinflation Policies

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  • Collard, Fabrice
  • Fève, Patrick
  • Matheron, Julien

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of disinflation policies on key macroeconomic variables. Using postwar US data and episode techniques, we identify disinflation shocks as shocks that drive the inflation rate to a lower level in the long-run. We find that in the immediate aftermath of a disinflation policy, the economy enters in a persistent recession. The inflation rate increases above its long-run level and exhibits a positive hump-shaped response. A similar pattern is found for the nominal interest rate, which responds even more strongly in the short-run. We then show that the standard new Keynesian model fails to account for macroeconomic dynamics in disinflationary times. On the contrary a deep habit version of the model successfully accounts for the effects of disinflation policies.
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  • Collard, Fabrice & Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien, 2007. "The Dynamic Effects of Disinflation Policies," IDEI Working Papers 426, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    • Handle: RePEc:ide:wpaper:6567
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    Cited by:

    1. Giamattei, Marcus, 2015. "Cold Turkey vs. Gradualism - Evidence on Disinflation Strategies from a Laboratory Experiment," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe V-67-15, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    2. Michelis, Andrea De & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2016. "Raising an inflation target: The Japanese experience with Abenomics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 67-87.
    3. Ascari, Guido & Ropele, Tiziano, 2012. "Disinflation in a DSGE perspective: Sacrifice ratio or welfare gain ratio?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 169-182.
    4. Ascari, Guido & Ropele, Tiziano, 2013. "Disinflation effects in a medium-scale New Keynesian model: Money supply rule versus interest rate rule," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 77-100.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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