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Assessing Inflation Persistence: Micro Evidence on an Inflation Targeting Economy

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  • Jan Babecky
  • Fabrizio Coricelli
  • Roman Horvath

Abstract

The paper provides an empirical analysis of inflation persistence in an inflation targeting country, the Czech Republic, using 412 detailed product-level consumer price indexes underlying the consumer basket over the period from 1994:M1 to 2005:M12. Subject to various sensitivity tests, our results suggest that raw goods and non-durables, followed by services, display smaller inflation persistence than durables and processed goods. Inflation seems to be somewhat less persistent after the adoption of inflation targeting in 1998. There is also evidence for aggregation bias, that is, aggregate inflation is found to be more persistent than the underlying detailed components. Price dispersion, as a proxy for the degree of competition, is found to be negatively related to inflation persistence, suggesting that competition is not conducive to reducing persistence.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Babecky & Fabrizio Coricelli & Roman Horvath, 2008. "Assessing Inflation Persistence: Micro Evidence on an Inflation Targeting Economy," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp353, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    • Handle: RePEc:cer:papers:wp353
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    Cited by:

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    4. Zorica Mladenović & Aleksandra Nojković, 2012. "Inflation Persistence in Central and Southeastern Europe: Evidence from Univariate and Structural Time Series Approaches," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(2), pages 235-266, May.
    5. Pongpitch Amatyakul & Deniz Igan & Marco Jacopo Lombardi, 2024. "Sectoral price dynamics in the last mile of post-Covid-19 disinflation," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    6. Dejan Zivkov & Slavica Manic & Jasmina Duraskovic & Jelena Kovacevic, 2019. "Bidirectional Nexus between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the Asian Emerging Markets – The GARCH-in-Mean Approach," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(6), pages 580-599, December.
    7. Trinil Arimurti & Budi Trisnanto, 2011. "Persistensi Inflasi Di Jakarta dan Implikasinya Terhadap Kebijakan Pengendalian Inflasi Daerah," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 14(1), pages 5-30, July.
    8. Agnieszka Leszczynska & Katarzyna Hertel, 2013. "Inflation persistence – a disaggregated approach," EcoMod2013 5692, EcoMod.
    9. Hasan Engin Duran & Burak Dindaroğlu, 2021. "Regional inflation persistence in Turkey," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 460-491, March.
    10. Konstantin Belyaev & Aelita Belyaeva & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler & Martin Vojtek, 2012. "Macroeconomic Factors as Drivers of LGD Prediction: Empirical Evidence from the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2012/12, Czech National Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation dynamics; persistence; inflation targeting.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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