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Bidirectional Nexus between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the Asian Emerging Markets – The GARCH-in-Mean Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Dejan Zivkov

    (University of Novi Sad, Serbia)

  • Slavica Manic

    (University of Belgrade, Serbia)

  • Jasmina Duraskovic

    (EDUKONS university, Serbia)

  • Jelena Kovacevic

    (‘LEMIT’ company, Novi Sad, Serbia)

Abstract

This paper investigates the bidirectional linkage between inflation and its uncertainty (inflation volatility) in the selected ten emerging Asian countries. In order to measure inflation uncertainty as accurate as possible, we consider GARCH-in-Mean model with six different distribution functions. We find the existence of the transmission effect from inflation to its volatility, but in the majority of the countries this effect is relatively week, amounting around 13% or way below. Only in the cases of Indonesia, China and Iran the effect is somewhat higher, with the magnitude of 26%, 20% and 17%, respectively. Evidence about the spillover effect from inflation uncertainty to inflation is reported only in four countries – Korea, Thailand, Pakistan and China. Interestingly, our results suggest that the highest impact from inflation volatility to inflation is found in Korea and Thailand, i.e. in the countries which implemented prudent and accountable inflation targeting strategy two decades ago. Complementary rolling regression supports the GARCH-in-Mean findings, providing an additional information about how the selected hypotheses manifest themselves in different subperiods.

Suggested Citation

  • Dejan Zivkov & Slavica Manic & Jasmina Duraskovic & Jelena Kovacevic, 2019. "Bidirectional Nexus between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the Asian Emerging Markets – The GARCH-in-Mean Approach," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(6), pages 580-599, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:69:y:2019:i:6:p:580-599
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mübariz Hasanov & Tolga Omay, 2011. "The Relationship Between Inflation, Output Growth, and Their Uncertainties: Evidence from Selected CEE Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 5-20, July.
    2. Juthathip Jongwanich & Donghyun Park, 2011. "Inflation in developing Asia: pass‐through from global food and oil price shocks," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 25(1), pages 79-92, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; inflation uncertainty; innovative distributions; Asian emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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