IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fau/fauart/v69y2019i6p580-599.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bidirectional Nexus between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the Asian Emerging Markets – The GARCH-in-Mean Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Dejan Zivkov

    (University of Novi Sad, Serbia)

  • Slavica Manic

    (University of Belgrade, Serbia)

  • Jasmina Duraskovic

    (EDUKONS university, Serbia)

  • Jelena Kovacevic

    (‘LEMIT’ company, Novi Sad, Serbia)

Abstract

This paper investigates the bidirectional linkage between inflation and its uncertainty (inflation volatility) in the selected ten emerging Asian countries. In order to measure inflation uncertainty as accurate as possible, we consider GARCH-in-Mean model with six different distribution functions. We find the existence of the transmission effect from inflation to its volatility, but in the majority of the countries this effect is relatively week, amounting around 13% or way below. Only in the cases of Indonesia, China and Iran the effect is somewhat higher, with the magnitude of 26%, 20% and 17%, respectively. Evidence about the spillover effect from inflation uncertainty to inflation is reported only in four countries – Korea, Thailand, Pakistan and China. Interestingly, our results suggest that the highest impact from inflation volatility to inflation is found in Korea and Thailand, i.e. in the countries which implemented prudent and accountable inflation targeting strategy two decades ago. Complementary rolling regression supports the GARCH-in-Mean findings, providing an additional information about how the selected hypotheses manifest themselves in different subperiods.

Suggested Citation

  • Dejan Zivkov & Slavica Manic & Jasmina Duraskovic & Jelena Kovacevic, 2019. "Bidirectional Nexus between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the Asian Emerging Markets – The GARCH-in-Mean Approach," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(6), pages 580-599, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:69:y:2019:i:6:p:580-599
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/mag/article/show/id/1451
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tomas Adam & Sona Benecka & Ivo Jansky, 2012. "Time-Varying Betas of Banking Sectors," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(6), pages 485-504, December.
    2. Mübariz Hasanov & Tolga Omay, 2011. "The Relationship Between Inflation, Output Growth, and Their Uncertainties: Evidence from Selected CEE Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 5-20, July.
    3. Jan Babecký & Fabrizio Coricelli & Roman Horváth, 2009. "Assessing Inflation Persistence: Micro Evidence on an Inflation Targeting Economy," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(2), pages 102-127, June.
    4. John Thornton, 2007. "The Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in Emerging Market Economies," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(4), pages 858-870, April.
    5. Mariusz Próchniak & Bartosz Witkowski, 2014. "The application of Bayesian model averaging in assessing the impact of the regulatory framework on economic growth," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 14(1-2), pages 159-180, December.
    6. Dong-Hyeon Kim & Shu-Chin Lin, 2012. "Inflation and Inflation Volatility Revisited," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 327-345, December.
    7. Daianu, Daniel & Kallai, Ella, 2008. "Disinflation and Inflation Targeting in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(1), pages 59-81, March.
    8. Gertrud Errit & Lenno Uusküla, 2014. "Euro area monetary policy transmission in Estonia," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 14(1-2), pages 55-77, December.
    9. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas & Hasan Murat Ertugrul, 2013. "Effect of Inflation Targeting on Inflation Uncertainty: A SWARCH Analysis," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 46(4), pages 444-459, December.
    10. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
    11. Chengsi Zhang, 2013. "Monetary Dynamics of Inflation in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(6), pages 737-760, June.
    12. Yufeng Chen & Wenqi Li & Xi Jin, 2018. "Volatility Spillovers between Crude Oil Prices and New Energy Stock Price in China," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 43-62, December.
    13. Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June.
    14. Amir Kia, 2006. "Deficits, Debt Financing, Monetary Policy and Inflation in Developing Countries: Internal or External Factors? Evidence from Iran," Carleton Economic Papers 06-03, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2006.
    15. Lyu, Yongjian & Wang, Peng & Wei, Yu & Ke, Rui, 2017. "Forecasting the VaR of crude oil market: Do alternative distributions help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 523-534.
    16. Ales Kresta & Tomas Tichy, 2012. "International Equity Portfolio Risk Modeling: The Case of the NIG Model and Ordinary Copula Functions," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(2), pages 141-161, May.
    17. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Soon, Siew-Voon & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Markov-switching analysis of exchange rate pass-through: Perspective from Asian countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 245-257.
    18. Vera Mirovic & Dejan Zivkov & Jovan Njegic, 2017. "Construction of Commodity Portfolio and Its Hedge Effectiveness Gauging – Revisiting DCC Models," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 67(5), pages 396-422, October.
    19. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Chizuru Kato, 2011. "Assessing the performance of inflation targeting in East Asian economies," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 25(1), pages 93-102, May.
    20. Grier, Robin & Grier, Kevin B., 2006. "On the real effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 478-500, August.
    21. Pelinescu, Elena & Caraiani, Petre, 2006. "Does the Inflation Targeting Have a Positive Role upon the Convergence of the Inflation Rate?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 3(3), pages 39-50, September.
    22. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-472, June.
    23. Carmen López Andión & José Manuel Maside Sanfiz & Ma Celia López Penabad, 2010. "Co-Integration between Mortgage Markets in the Monetary Union: 1995–2008," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(1), pages 40-57, February.
    24. Kiliç, Cuneyt & Arica, Feyza, 2014. "Economic Freedom, Inflation Rate and their Impact on Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 160-176, March.
    25. Emil STAVREV, 2006. "Driving Forces of Inflation in New EU Countries (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 56(5-6), pages 246-257, May.
    26. Holland, A Steven, 1995. "Inflation and Uncertainty: Tests for Temporal Ordering," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 827-837, August.
    27. Abidin Ozdemir, Zeynel & Fisunoglu, Mahir, 2008. "On the inflation-uncertainty hypothesis in Jordan, Philippines and Turkey: A long memory approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-12.
    28. Komain Jiranyakul & Timothy P. Opiela, 2011. "The Impact of Inflation Uncertainty on Output Growth and Inflation in Thailand," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 291-307, September.
    29. Buth, Bora & Kakinaka, Makoto & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2015. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty: The case of Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Vietnam," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 31-43.
    30. Fenghua Wen & Feng Min & Yue‐Jun Zhang & Can Yang, 2019. "Crude oil price shocks, monetary policy, and China's economy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 812-827, April.
    31. Bedri Kamil Onur Taş, 2012. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(3), pages 283-297, July.
    32. Fountas, Stilianos, 2010. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty and growth: Are they related?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 896-899, September.
    33. Kia, Amir, 2006. "Deficits, debt financing, monetary policy and inflation in developing countries: Internal or external factors?: Evidence from Iran," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 879-903, November.
    34. Daal, Elton & Naka, Atsuyuki & Sanchez, Benito, 2005. "Re-examining inflation and inflation uncertainty in developed and emerging countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 180-186, November.
    35. MacKinnon, James G. & White, Halbert, 1985. "Some heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators with improved finite sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 305-325, September.
    36. James E. Payne, 2008. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty: evidence from the Caribbean region," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 501-511, October.
    37. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Shen, Chung-Hua & Xie, Zixiong, 2008. "Evidence of a nonlinear relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty: The case of the four little dragons," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 363-376.
    38. Emil Stavrev, 2008. "What Explains Growth and Inflation Dispersions in EMU?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(01-02), pages 57-67, January.
    39. Jiranyakul, Komain & Opiela, Timothy P., 2010. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the ASEAN-5 economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 105-112, April.
    40. Brankica Pažun & Zlatko Langović & Ana Langovic Milićević, 2016. "Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate Assessment of the Serbian Dinar: The MB approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 76-87, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nora Abu Asab & Juan Carlos Cuestas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2018. "Inflation targeting or exchange rate targeting: Which framework supports the goal of price stability in emerging market economies?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-21, August.
    2. Claudiu T. Albulescu & Aviral Kumar Twari & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Time-Frequency Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty for the U.S.: Evidence from Historical Data," Working Papers 201591, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Mesbah Fathy Sharaf, 2015. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty Revisited: Evidence from Egypt," Economies, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-19, July.
    4. Nasr, Adnen Ben & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ajmi, Ahdi N. & Aye, Goodness C. & Gupta, Rangan & van Eyden, Reneé, 2015. "Causality between inflation and inflation uncertainty in South Africa: Evidence from a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 46-68.
    5. Dejan Živkov & Jovan Njegic & Marko Pecanac, 2014. "Bidirectional linkage between inflation and inflation uncertainty – the case of Eastern European countries," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 14(1-2), pages 124-139, December.
    6. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon, 2014. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth: what does the data say for Malaysia?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 41(3), pages 370-386, May.
    7. Siti Hamizah Mohd & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Stilianos Fountas, 2013. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty And Output Growth: Recent Evidence From Asean-5 Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 58(04), pages 1-17.
    8. Akhand Akhtar Hossain & Popkarn Arwatchanakarn, 2016. "Inflation and inflation volatility in Thailand," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(30), pages 2792-2806, June.
    9. Said Zamin Shah & Said Zamin Shah & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Law Siong Hook, 2017. "The Asymmetric Effects of Real and Nominal Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 377-386.
    10. WenShwo Fang & Stephen Miller & Chih-Chuan Yeh, 2010. "Does a threshold inflation rate exist? Quantile inferences for inflation and its variability," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 619-641, December.
    11. Buth, Bora & Kakinaka, Makoto & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2015. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty: The case of Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Vietnam," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 31-43.
    12. Shah, Said Zamin & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Hook, Law Siong & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2017. "Nominal uncertainty, real uncertainty and macroeconomic performance in a time-varying asymmetric framework: Implications for monetary policy," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 75-93.
    13. Diego Ferreira & Andreza Aparecida Palma, 2018. "Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty In Latin America: A Time-Varying Stochastic Volatility In Mean Approach," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 125, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    14. Said Zamin Shah & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2019. "Dynamic Linkages and Volatility Transmissions between Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Performance: Evidence from South Asian Countries," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 14(3), pages 281-313, December.
    15. Daniela Viorica & Danut Jemna & Carmen Pintilescu & Mircea Asandului, 2014. "The Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty. Empirical Evidence for the Newest EU Countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(3), pages 1-11, March.
    16. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Akram Hasanov & Stilianos Fountas, 2011. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty: Evidence from two Transition Economies," Discussion Paper Series 2011_05, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Apr 2011.
    17. Carmen PINTILESCU & Mircea ASANDULUI & Elena-Daniela VIORICA & Danut-Vasile JEMNA, 2016. "Investigation On The Causal Relationship Between Inflation, Output Growth And Their Uncertainties In Romania," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 17, pages 71-89, June.
    18. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "The impacts of regime-switching structures and fat-tailed characteristics on the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 523-536.
    19. Erdem Havvanur Feyza & Yamak Rahmi, 2014. "The relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Turkey," Экономика региона, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное бюджетное учреждение науки «Институт экономики Уральского отделения Российской академии наук», issue 4, pages 246-254.
    20. Hassan Heidari & Salih Turan Katircioglu & Sahar Bashiri, 2013. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty and growth in the Iranian economy: an application of BGARCH-M model with BEKK approach," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(5), pages 819-832, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; inflation uncertainty; innovative distributions; Asian emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:69:y:2019:i:6:p:580-599. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/icunicz.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Natalie Svarcova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/icunicz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.