The Relationship between Inflation, output growth, and their Uncertainties: Evidence from selected CEE countries
In this paper, we examine causal relationships among inflation rate, output growth rate, inflation uncertainty and output uncertainty for ten Central and Eastern European transition countries. For this purpose, we estimate a bivariate GARCH model that includes output growth and inflation rates for each country. Then we use conditional standard deviations of inflation and output to proxy nominal and real uncertainty, respectively, and perform Granger-causality tests. Our results suggest that inflation rate induces uncertainty about both inflation rate and output growth rate, which is detrimental for real economic activity. On the other hand, we find that output growth rate reduces macroeconomic uncertainty. In addition, we also examine and discuss causal relationships among remaining variables.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Hacettepe University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Ankara, Turkey|
Phone: 0090 312 297 8652
Fax: (312) 299 2003
Web page: http://www.iktisat.hacettepe.edu.tr
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