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The Relationship Between Inflation, Output Growth, and Their Uncertainties: Evidence from Selected CEE Countries

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  • Mübariz Hasanov
  • Tolga Omay

Abstract

In this paper, we examine causal relationships between inflation rate, output growth rate, inflation uncertainty, and output uncertainty for ten Central and Eastern European transition countries. For this purpose, we estimate a bivariate GARCH model that includes output growth and inflation rates for each country. Then we use conditional standard deviations of inflation and output to proxy nominal and real uncertainty, respectively, and perform Granger causality tests. Our results suggest that inflation rate induces uncertainty about both inflation rate and output growth rate, which is detrimental to real economic activity. At the same time, we find that output growth rate reduces macroeconomic uncertainty in some countries. In addition, we also examine and discuss causal relationships between the remaining variables.

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  • Mübariz Hasanov & Tolga Omay, 2011. "The Relationship Between Inflation, Output Growth, and Their Uncertainties: Evidence from Selected CEE Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 5-20, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:47:y:2011:i:0:p:5-20
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    13. Lupu, Dan & Asandului, Mircea & Sîrghi, Nicoleta, 2015. "Considerations regarding inflation's evolution in Central and Eastern European countries," MPRA Paper 95508, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Shah, Said Zamin & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Hook, Law Siong & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2017. "Nominal uncertainty, real uncertainty and macroeconomic performance in a time-varying asymmetric framework: Implications for monetary policy," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 75-93.
    15. Nasr, Adnen Ben & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ajmi, Ahdi N. & Aye, Goodness C. & Gupta, Rangan & van Eyden, Reneé, 2015. "Causality between inflation and inflation uncertainty in South Africa: Evidence from a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 46-68.
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    22. Ljubivoje Radonjic & Nevena Veselinovic, 2020. "Patterns of Interrelationships between Inflation, R&D, Innovation, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 22(2), pages 5-33, December.
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    24. Hasan Murat Ertugrul & Huseyin Ozturk, 2013. "The Drivers of Credit Default Swap Prices: Evidence from Selected Emerging Market Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S5), pages 228-249, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Granger causality tests; inflation; output growth; transition countries; uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General

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