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Does oil price aggravate the impact of economic policy uncertainty on bank performance in India?

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  • Nguyen, Thanh Pham Thien
  • Nghiem, Son
  • Tripe, David

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and bank performance in India over the period 2000–2016. We investigate the role of international crude oil price in this relationship that previous studies have ignored. We also investigate whether the effect of oil prices depends on inflationary conditions. Using a sample of Indian commercial banks from 2000 to 2016, we find that an increase in the Indian EPU is associated with increased risk-taking (insolvency, credit and liquidity risks), but improved cost management efficiency and profitability. The EPU and risk-taking relationships are aggravated by higher international oil prices. These effects of oil prices are not conditional on the inflation level in India. The results are robust to alternative Indian EPU calculations and estimation methods. We also investigate the role of international oil prices in the spillover of the US EPU to Indian banks' performance. We find that the US EPU affects Indian banks' credit risk, cost efficiency and profitability in the same sign as the Indian EPU, but the two latter effects are amplified by oil price rises, and the amplification effects are conditional on Indian inflation. The findings have important implications for policies for financial reform and financial stability in India.

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  • Nguyen, Thanh Pham Thien & Nghiem, Son & Tripe, David, 2021. "Does oil price aggravate the impact of economic policy uncertainty on bank performance in India?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:104:y:2021:i:c:s0140988321004072
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105529
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic policy uncertainty; Oil price; Bank performance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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