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The dynamic nexus of oil price fluctuations and banking sector in China: A continuous wavelet analysis

Author

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  • Bilgili, Faik
  • Kassouri, Yacouba
  • Kuşkaya, Sevda
  • Majok Garang, Aweng Peter

Abstract

The fluctuations in World and national energy prices and energy policies might affect the financial and real sectors. This paper focuses on the nexus between oil prices and bank credits in China through continuous wavelet analyses in the following distinct ways. First, we observe the potential effects of oil prices on Chinese claims on the private sector by following the whole sample data, and, sub-samples of the data. Secondly, we account for higher and lower frequencies for sub-samples and the whole sample in the dynamic interaction between oil prices and Chinese claims on the private sector. Thirdly, this study provides more insight into understanding the influence of oil prices on the supply of credits through time-varying estimations at different scales (frequencies). The continuous wavelet analyses demonstrate a positive impact of Chinese oil prices on the Chinese claims on the private sector from 1999:06 to 2019:02 at a 3-8-year cycle which corresponds to the full liberalization of the Chinese domestic oil market. The positive effect of the world oil price on claims on the private sector is, however, restricted only for the sub-period 2005–2012 due to a relatively lower degree of regulation of the Chinese domestic market during this sub-period.

Suggested Citation

  • Bilgili, Faik & Kassouri, Yacouba & Kuşkaya, Sevda & Majok Garang, Aweng Peter, 2024. "The dynamic nexus of oil price fluctuations and banking sector in China: A continuous wavelet analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:88:y:2024:i:c:s0301420723011601
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104449
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    Keywords

    World oil prices; Chinese oil prices; Credit cycles in China; Claims on the private sector in China; Investment in China; Continuous wavelet analyses;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • N75 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Asia including Middle East
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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