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Oil prices and stock markets: A review of the theory and empirical evidence

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  • Stavros Degiannakis

    () (Department of Economics and Regional Development, Panteion University of Social and Political Sciences and Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Bournemouth University)

  • George Filis

    () (Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Bournemouth University)

  • Vipin Arora

    (U.S. Energy Information Administration)

Abstract

Do oil prices and stock markets move in tandem or in opposite directions? The complex and time varying relationship between oil prices and stock markets has caught the attention of the financial press, investors, policymakers, researchers, and the general public in recent years. In light of such attention, this paper reviews research on the oil price and stock market relationship. The majority of papers we survey study the impacts of oil markets on stock markets, whereas, little research in the reverse direction exists. Our review finds that the causal effects between oil and stock markets depend heavily on whether research is performed using aggregate stock market indices, sectoral indices, or firm-level data and whether stock markets operate in net oil-importing or net oil-exporting countries. Additionally, conclusions vary depending on whether studies use symmetric or asymmetric changes in the price of oil, or whether they focus on unexpected changes in oil prices. Finally, we find that most studies show oil price volatility transmits to stock market volatility, and that including measures of stock market performance improves forecasts of oil prices and oil price volatility. Several important avenues for further research are identified.

Suggested Citation

  • Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil prices and stock markets: A review of the theory and empirical evidence," BAFES Working Papers BAFES22, Department of Accounting, Finance & Economic, Bournemouth University.
  • Handle: RePEc:bam:wpaper:bafes22
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Thomas Bernard & Maral Kichian, 2017. "Carbon Tax Saliency: The Case of B.C. Diesel Demand," Working Papers 1718E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    2. Saban Nazlioglu & Rangan Gupta & Elie Bouri, 2019. "Movements in International Bond Markets: The Role of Oil Prices," Working Papers 201935, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Saban Nazlioglu & Rangan Gupta & Alper Gormus & Ugur Soytas, 2019. "Price and Volatility Linkages between International REITs and Oil Markets," Working Papers 201954, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil prices; stock markets; interconnectedness; forecasting; oil-importers; oil-exporters;

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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