IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/adbiwp/0807.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

International Commodity Prices and Domestic Bank Lending in Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Agarwal, Isha

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Duttagupta, Rupa

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Presbitero, Andrea F.

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

We study the role of the bank-lending channel in propagating fluctuations in commodity prices to credit aggregates and economic activity in developing countries. We use data on more than 1,600 banks from 78 developing countries to analyze the transmission of changes in international commodity prices to domestic bank lending. Identification relies on a bank specific time-varying measure of bank sensitivity to changes in commodity prices, based on daily data on bank stock prices. We find that a fall in commodity prices reduces bank lending, although this effect is confined to low-income countries and driven by commodity price busts. Banks with relatively lower deposits and poor asset quality transmit commodity price changes to lending more aggressively, supporting the hypothesis that the overall credit response to commodity prices works also through the credit supply channel. Our results also show that there is no significant difference in the behavior of foreign and domestic banks in the transmission process, reflecting the regional footprint of foreign banks in developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Agarwal, Isha & Duttagupta, Rupa & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2018. "International Commodity Prices and Domestic Bank Lending in Developing Countries," ADBI Working Papers 807, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0807
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/401286/adbi-wp807.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cull, Robert & Soledad Martinez Peria, Maria, 2010. "Foreign bank participation in developing countries : what do we know about the drivers and consequences of this phenomenon?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5398, The World Bank.
    2. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    3. Julian di Giovanni & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Mehmet Fatih Ulu & Yusuf Soner Baskaya, 2022. "International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles [Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Spillovers with Imperfect Financial Markets]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(2), pages 733-773.
    4. Dean Karlan & Jonathan Zinman, 2010. "Expanding Credit Access: Using Randomized Supply Decisions to Estimate the Impacts," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 433-464, January.
    5. Kashyap, Anil K. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1995. "The impact of monetary policy on bank balance sheets," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 151-195, June.
    6. Franklin Allen & Elena Carletti & Robert Cull & Jun ‘QJ’ Qian & Lemma Senbet & Patricio Valenzuela, 2014. "The African Financial Development and Financial Inclusion Gaps," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 23(5), pages 614-642.
    7. Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2005. "Inside the bank lending channel," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1737-1759, October.
    8. Victoria Ivashina & David S. Scharfstein & Jeremy C. Stein, 2015. "Dollar Funding and the Lending Behavior of Global Banks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(3), pages 1241-1281.
    9. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Shin, Hyun Song, 2018. "Why bank capital matters for monetary policy," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 35(PB), pages 17-29.
    10. Abhijit V. Banerjee & Esther Duflo, 2014. "Do Firms Want to Borrow More? Testing Credit Constraints Using a Directed Lending Program," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(2), pages 572-607.
    11. Fernández, Andrés & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2017. "World shocks, world prices, and business cycles: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 2-14.
    12. Aiyar, Shekhar & Calomiris, Charles W. & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2016. "How does credit supply respond to monetary policy and bank minimum capital requirements?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 142-165.
    13. Neil Rankin & Måns Söderbom & Francis Teal, 2006. "Exporting from Manufacturing Firms in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 15(4), pages 671-687, December.
    14. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric S, 1997. "The International Transmission of Financial Shocks: The Case of Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 495-505, September.
    15. Mlachila, Montfort & Ouedraogo, Rasmané, 2020. "Financial development curse in resource-rich countries: The role of commodity price shocks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 84-96.
    16. Samuel Bazzi & Christopher Blattman, 2014. "Economic Shocks and Conflict: Evidence from Commodity Prices," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 1-38, October.
    17. Angus Deaton, 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 23-40, Summer.
    18. Allen N. Berger & Gregory F. Udell, 2002. "Small Business Credit Availability and Relationship Lending: The Importance of Bank Organisational Structure," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(477), pages 32-53, February.
    19. Ralph De Haas & Neeltje Van Horen, 2013. "Running for the Exit? International Bank Lending During a Financial Crisis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 244-285.
    20. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2010. "International Commodity Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 519-534, May.
    21. Acharya, Viral V. & Steffen, Sascha, 2015. "The “greatest” carry trade ever? Understanding eurozone bank risks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 215-236.
    22. Dabla-Norris, Era & Bal Gündüz, Yasemin, 2014. "Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries: A Vulnerability Index," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 360-378.
    23. Morais, Bernardo & Peydró, José-Luis & Roldán Peña, Jessica & Ruiz Ortega, Claudia, 2019. "The International Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy Rates and QE: Credit Supply, Reach-for-Yield, and Real Effects," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 74(1), pages 55-90.
    24. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2008. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1413-1442, September.
    25. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    26. Murillo Campello, 2002. "Internal Capital Markets in Financial Conglomerates: Evidence from Small Bank Responses to Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2773-2805, December.
    27. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Ross Levine, 2010. "Financial Institutions and Markets across Countries and over Time: The Updated Financial Development and Structure Database," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 24(1), pages 77-92, January.
    28. Ralph De Haas & Iman Van Lelyveld, 2014. "Multinational Banks and the Global Financial Crisis: Weathering the Perfect Storm?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(s1), pages 333-364, February.
    29. Nicola Cetorelli & Linda S Goldberg, 2011. "Global Banks and International Shock Transmission: Evidence from the Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(1), pages 41-76, April.
    30. Stijn Claessens & Neeltje Van Horen, 2014. "Foreign Banks: Trends and Impact," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(s1), pages 295-326, February.
    31. Robin Burgess & Rohini Pande, 2005. "Do Rural Banks Matter? Evidence from the Indian Social Banking Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 780-795, June.
    32. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, 2006. "Small and medium-size enterprises: Access to finance as a growth constraint," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 2931-2943, November.
    33. Jayaratne, Jith & Morgan, Donald P, 2000. "Capital Market Frictions and Deposit Constraints at Banks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(1), pages 74-92, February.
    34. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2004. "Does bank capital affect lending behavior?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 436-457, October.
    35. repec:oup:rfinst:v:26:y::i:1:p:244-285 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Caggiano, Giovanni & Calice, Pietro & Leonida, Leone, 2014. "Early warning systems and systemic banking crises in low income countries: A multinomial logit approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 258-269.
    37. Miriam Bruhn & Inessa Love, 2014. "The Real Impact of Improved Access to Finance: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(3), pages 1347-1376, June.
    38. Raddatz, Claudio, 2007. "Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low-income countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 155-187, September.
    39. Markus Bruckner & Antonio Ciccone, 2010. "International Commodities Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 1008, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    40. Leonardo Gambacorta & David Marques-Ibanez, 2011. "The bank lending channel: lessons from the crisis [Financial intermediaries and monetary economics]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 135-182.
    41. Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Mr. Montfort Mlachila & Rasmané Ouedraogo, 2016. "Commodity Price Shocks and Financial Sector Fragility," IMF Working Papers 2016/012, International Monetary Fund.
    42. Ftiti, Zied & Kablan, Sandrine & Guesmi, Khaled, 2016. "What can we learn about commodity and credit cycles? Evidence from African commodity-exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 313-324.
    43. Philipp Schnabl, 2012. "The International Transmission of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(3), pages 897-932, June.
    44. Mendoza, Enrique G., 1997. "Terms-of-trade uncertainty and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 323-356, December.
    45. Bleaney, Michael & Greenaway, David, 2001. "The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 491-500, August.
    46. Beck, Thorsten & De Jonghe, Olivier & Mulier, Klaas, 2017. "Bank sectoral concentration and (systemic) risk: Evidence from a worldwide sample of banks," CEPR Discussion Papers 12009, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nicholas Ngepah & Margarida Liandra Andrade da Silva & Charles Shaaba Saba, 2022. "The Impact of Commodity Price Shocks on Banking System Stability in Developing Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-23, April.
    2. Didier, Tatiana & Levine, Ross & Llovet Montanes, Ruth & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2021. "Capital market financing and firm growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    3. Miguel Biron & Felipe Córdova & Antonio Lemus, 2019. "Banks' business model and credit supply in Chile: the role of a state-owned bank," BIS Working Papers 800, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Lartey, Theophilus & James, Gregory A. & Danso, Albert, 2021. "Interbank funding, bank risk exposure and performance in the UK: A three-stage network DEA approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    5. Marina Tiunova, 2019. "Commodity and Financial Cycles in Resource-based Economies," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(3), pages 38-70, September.
    6. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil & Bilgili, Faik, 2020. "An investigation of the financial resource curse hypothesis in oil-exporting countries: The threshold effect of democratic accountability," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    7. Lartey, Theophilus & James, Gregory A. & Danso, Albert & Boateng, Agyenim, 2023. "Interbank market structure, bank conduct, and performance: Evidence from the UK," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 1-25.
    8. Cheikh A. Gueye & Asithandile Mbelu & Mr. Amadou N Sy, 2019. "Coping with Falling Oil Prices: The Different Fortunes of African Banks," IMF Working Papers 2019/129, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Biron Miguel & Felipe Córdova & Antonio Lemus, 2019. "Banks’ Business Model and Credit Supply in Chile: The Role of a State-Owned Bank," Working Papers hal-04141896, HAL.
    10. Carlos Cantú & Roberto Lobato & Calixto López & Fabrizio Lopez-Gallo, 2019. "A loan-level analysis of bank lending in Mexico," BIS Working Papers 802, Bank for International Settlements.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Horváth, Bálint L. & Huizinga, Harry, 2020. "Foreign banks and international transmission of monetary policy: Evidence from the syndicated loan market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    2. Albertazzi, Ugo & Barbiero, Francesca & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Popov, Alexander & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2020. "Monetary policy and bank stability: the analytical toolbox reviewed," Working Paper Series 2377, European Central Bank.
    3. Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Horen, Neeltje van, 2015. "Shocks Abroad, Pain at Home? Bank-Firm Level Evidence on the International Transmission of Financial Shocks," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 63(4), pages 698-750.
    4. Ongena, Steven & Schindele, Ibolya & Vonnák, Dzsamila, 2021. "In lands of foreign currency credit, bank lending channels run through?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    5. Carlo Alcaraz & Stijn Claessens & Gabriel Cuadra & David Marques-Ibanez & Horacio Sapriza, 2018. "Whatever it takes. What's the impact of a major nonconventional monetary policy intervention?," BIS Working Papers 749, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Stijn Claessens, 2017. "Global Banking: Recent Developments and Insights from Research," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(4), pages 1513-1555.
    7. Mr. Markus Eberhardt & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero, 2018. "Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 2018/153, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Claudia Buch & Catherine Koch & Michael Koetter, 2016. "Crises and rescues: liquidity transmission through international banks," BIS Working Papers 576, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2021. "Commodity prices and banking crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    10. Correa, Ricardo & Sapriza, Horacio & Zlate, Andrei, 2021. "Wholesale funding runs, global banks' supply of liquidity insurance, and corporate investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    11. Danisewicz, Piotr & Reinhardt, Dennis & Sowerbutts, Rhiannon, 2017. "On a tight leash: Does bank organizational structure matter for macroprudential spillovers?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 174-194.
    12. Baskaya, Yusuf Soner & di Giovanni, Julian & Kalemli-Özcan, Şebnem & Peydro, José-Luis & Ulu, Mehmet Fatih, 2017. "Capital flows and the international credit channel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 15-22.
    13. Mattia Girotti, 2021. "How monetary policy changes bank liability structure and funding cost," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(1), pages 49-75.
    14. Takáts, Előd & Temesvary, Judit, 2020. "The currency dimension of the bank lending channel in international monetary transmission," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    15. Ozan Güler & Mike Mariathasan & Klaas Mulier & Nejat G. Okatan, 2021. "The real effects of banks' corporate credit supply: A literature review," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1252-1285, July.
    16. Sumit Agarwal & Ricardo Correa & Bernardo Morais & Jessica Roldán & Claudia Ruiz-Ortega, 2020. "Owe a Bank Millions, the Bank Has a Problem: Credit Concentration in Bad Times," International Finance Discussion Papers 1288, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. van Holle, Frederiek, 2017. "Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 30d11a4b-7bc9-4c81-ad24-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Cantú, Carlos & Lobato, Roberto & López, Calixto & López-Gallo, Fabrizio, 2022. "A loan-level analysis of financial resilience in Mexico," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    19. Doerr, Sebastian & Schaz, Philipp, 2021. "Geographic diversification and bank lending during crises," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(3), pages 768-788.
    20. Adrian Babin, 2015. "Home-Host Banking Issues and Non-Core Funding—Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 447-477, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank lending; commodity prices; macrofinancial linkages; developing countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0807. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ADB Institute (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/adbinjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.