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Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low income countries?

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  • Raddatz, Claudio

Abstract

External shocks, such as commodity price fluctuations, natural disasters, and the role of the international economy, are often blamed for the poor economic performance of low-income countries. The author quantifies the impact of these different external shocks using a panel vector autoregression (VAR) approach and compares their relative contributions to output volatility in low-income countries vis-à-vis internal factors. He finds that external shocks can only explain a small fraction of the output variance of a typical low-income country. Internal factors are the main source of fluctuations. From a quantitative perspective, the output effect of external shocks is typically small in absolute terms, but significant relative to the historic performance of these countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Raddatz, Claudio, 2005. "Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low income countries?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3680, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3680
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    Keywords

    Economic Theory&Research; Inequality; Macroeconomic Management; Achieving Shared Growth; Fiscal&Monetary Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

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