IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Trade Openness and Developing Countries' Vulnerability: Concepts, Misconceptions, and Directions for Research

  • Montalbano, Pierluigi

Summary This work focuses on the welfare costs of exposure to shocks and uncertainty linked to trade openness--a prominent issue in international debate. It contributes by presenting a comprehensive review of the literature on the "destabilizing effects" of trade openness, drawing together studies in different fields. It provides a conceptualization of vulnerability and three promising lines of reasoning (macro, micro, and meso) for future research on the link between trade and vulnerability.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X11000283
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal World Development.

Volume (Year): 39 (2011)
Issue (Month): 9 (September)
Pages: 1489-1502

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:39:y:2011:i:9:p:1489-1502
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 2001. "International Trade and Business Cycles: Is Vertical Specialization the Missing Link?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 371-375, May.
  2. Patricia Justino & Julie Litchfield, 2003. "Poverty Dynamics in Rural Vietnam: Winners and Losers During Reform," PRUS Working Papers 10, Poverty Research Unit at Sussex, University of Sussex.
  3. Canova, Fabio & Dellas, Harris, 1993. "Trade interdependence and the international business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 23-47, February.
  4. Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "One reason countries pay their debts: renegotiation and international trade," Staff Reports 142, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Amin, Sajeda & Rai, Ashok S. & Topa, Giorgio, 2003. "Does microcredit reach the poor and vulnerable? Evidence from northern Bangladesh," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 59-82, February.
  6. Kei-Mu Yi & Ayhan Kose, 2005. "Can the Standard International Business Cycle Model Explain the Relation Between Trade and Comovement?," IMF Working Papers 05/204, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Malik, Adeel & Temple, Jonathan, 2006. "The Geography of Output Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 5516, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. William Easterly & Michael Kremer & Lant Pritchett & Lawrence H. Summers, 1993. "Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Tesliuc, Emil D. & Lindert, Kathy, 2004. "Risk and vulnerability in Guatemala: a quantitative and qualitative assessment," Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes 30154, The World Bank.
  10. César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Ernesto H. Stein, 2003. "Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronization: Are Developing Countries any Different?," Research Department Publications 4315, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  11. Baxter, Marianne & Kouparitsas, Michael A., 2005. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 113-157, January.
  12. Stefan Dercon & Pramila Krishnan, 2000. "Vulnerability, seasonality and poverty in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 25-53.
  13. Koren, Miklós & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2005. "Technological diversification," Working Paper Series 0551, European Central Bank.
  14. Lino Briguglio & Gordon Cordina & Nadia Farrugia & Stephanie Vella, 2009. "Economic Vulnerability and Resilience: Concepts and Measurements," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 229-247.
  15. Ligon, Ethan & Laura Schechter, 2002. "Measuring Vulnerability," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 128, Royal Economic Society.
  16. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejía, 2004. "On the empirics of Sudden Stops: the relevance of balance-sheet effects," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  17. Dinar, A. & Mendelsohn, R. & Evenson, R. & Parikh, J. & Sanghi, A. & Kumar, K. & McKinsey, J. & Lonergen, S., 1998. "Measuring the Impact of CLimate Change on Indian Agriculture," Papers 402, World Bank - Technical Papers.
  18. Philippe Martin & Hélène Rey, 2006. "Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?," Post-Print hal-01021349, HAL.
  19. Miklos Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "Volatility and Development," CEP Discussion Papers dp0706, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  20. Karras, Georgios & Song, Frank, 1996. "Sources of business-cycle volatility: An exploratory study on a sample of OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 621-637.
  21. Pravin Krishna & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2009. "Comparative Advantage, Complexity and Volatility," NBER Working Papers 14965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Robert Holzmann & Steen Jorgensen, 2000. "Social risk management : a new conceptual framework for social protection and beyond," Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes 21314, The World Bank.
  23. Christopher D. Carroll, 2001. "A Theory of the Consumption Function, with and without Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 23-45, Summer.
  24. Michael Carter & Christopher Barrett, 2006. "The economics of poverty traps and persistent poverty: An asset-based approach," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 178-199.
  25. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  26. George W. Stadler, 1994. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1750-1783, December.
  27. Karen E. Dynan, 1993. "How prudent are consumers?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 135, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  28. Rodrik, Dani, 1996. "Why do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  29. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka & Tarek Coury, 2002. "Trade Openness, Investment Instability and Terms-of-Trade Volatility," NBER Working Papers 9332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Wim Naude & Amelia Santos-Paulino & Mark McGillivray, 2009. "Measuring Vulnerability: An Overview and Introduction," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 183-191.
  31. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
  32. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson & Yunyong Thaicharoen, 2002. "Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth," NBER Working Papers 9124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2001. "Growth is good for the poor," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2587, The World Bank.
  34. Norman V. Loayza & Romain Rancière & Luis Servén & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Welfare in Developing Countries: An Introduction," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(3), pages 343-357, October.
  35. Guillaumont, Patrick, 2007. "Assessing the Economic Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States and the Least Developed Countries," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  36. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Contagion and Trade: Why are Currency Crises Regional," CEPR Discussion Papers 1947, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  37. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-66, May.
  38. Eduardo A. Cavallo, 2008. "Output Volatility and Openness to Trade: a Reassessment," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Fall 2008), pages 105-152, September.
  39. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 1998. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises; Empirical Regularities," IMF Working Papers 98/89, International Monetary Fund.
  40. Glewwe, Paul & Gragnolati, Michele & Zaman, Hassan, 2002. "Who Gained from Vietnam's Boom in the 1990s?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(4), pages 773-92, July.
  41. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  42. Kristin J. Forbes, 2002. "Are Trade Linkages Important Determinants of Country Vulnerability to Crises?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 77-132 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2009. "Trade Openness and Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 558-585, August.
  44. Nidardo, J. & Fortin, N. & Lemieux, T., 1994. "Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages, 1973-1992: A Semiparametric Approach," Papers 93-94-15, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
  45. Bob Baulch & John Hoddinott, 2000. "Economic mobility and poverty dynamics in developing countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 1-24.
  46. Dynan, Karen E, 1993. "How Prudent Are Consumers?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(6), pages 1104-13, December.
  47. Yoko Niimi & Puja Vasudeva Dutta & Alan Winters, 2003. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty Dynamics in Vietnam," PRUS Working Papers 17, Poverty Research Unit at Sussex, University of Sussex.
  48. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Financial Openness, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals," NBER Working Papers 10277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  49. L Alan Winters, 2004. "Trade Liberalisation and Economic Performance: An Overview," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages F4-F21, 02.
  50. Ligon, Ethan, 2005. "Poverty and the Welfare Costs of Risk Associated with Globalization," Working Paper Series RP2005/57, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  51. Marco Terrones & Eswar S Prasad & Ayhan Kose, 2003. "Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility," IMF Working Papers 03/50, International Monetary Fund.
  52. Haddad, Mona E. & Lim, Jamus Jerome & Saborowski, Christian, 2010. "Trade openness reduces growth volatility when countries are well diversified," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5222, The World Bank.
  53. Datt, Gaurav & Hoogeveen, Hans, 2000. "El Nino or El Peso? Crisis, poverty, and income distribution in the Philippines," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2466, The World Bank.
  54. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
  55. Frederic Zimmerman & MICHAEL R. CARTER, . "Asset Smoothing, Consumption Smoothing and the Reproduction for Inequality under Risk and Subsistence Constraints," Wisconsin-Madison Agricultural and Applied Economics Staff Papers 402, Wisconsin-Madison Agricultural and Applied Economics Department.
  56. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 251-85, May.
  57. Jean Imbs, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," IMF Working Papers 03/81, International Monetary Fund.
  58. Christiaensen, Luc J.M. & Boisvert, Richard N., 2000. "On Measuring Household Food Vulnerability: Case Evidence from Northern Mali," Working Papers 127676, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  59. Cesar Calvo & Stefan Dercon, 2007. "Vulnerability to Poverty," CSAE Working Paper Series 2007-03, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  60. Robert M. Townsend, 1995. "Consumption Insurance: An Evaluation of Risk-Bearing Systems in Low-Income Economies," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 83-102, Summer.
  61. Kose, M. Ayhan, 2002. "Explaining business cycles in small open economies: 'How much do world prices matter?'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 299-327, March.
  62. Townsend, R.M., 1991. "Risk and Insurance in Village India," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 91-3, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
  63. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2008. "Does openness to trade make countries more vulnerable to sudden stops, or less? Using gravity to establish causality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1430-1452, December.
  64. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
  65. Raddatz, Claudio, 2005. "Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low income countries?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3680, The World Bank.
  66. Glenn Otto & Graham Voss & Luke Willard, 2001. "Understanding OECD Output Correlations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  67. Eswar S. Prasad & Jeffery A. Gable, 1998. "International Evidence on the Determinants of Trade Dynamics," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(3), pages 401-439, September.
  68. L. Alan Winters & Neil McCulloch & Andrew McKay, 2004. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 72-115, March.
  69. Hoddinott, John & Quisumbing, Agnes, 2003. "Methods for microeconometric risk and vulnerability assessments," Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes 29138, The World Bank.
  70. Pablo E. Guidotti & Federico Sturzenegger & Agustín Villar, 2004. "On the Consequences of Sudden Stops," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 171-214, January.
  71. Jeong-Joon Lee & Yasuyuki Sawada, 2005. "Precautionary Saving under LiquidityConstraints: Evidence from Rural Pakistan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-377, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  72. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Nina Pavcnik, 2004. "Trade, Inequality, and Poverty: What Do We Know? Evidence from Recent Trade Liberalization Episodes in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 10593, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  73. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2005. "Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(si), pages 31-63.
  74. Glewwe, Paul & Hall, Gillette, 1998. "Are some groups more vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks than others? Hypothesis tests based on panel data from Peru," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 181-206, June.
  75. Jalan, Jyotsna & Ravallion, Martin, 1997. "Are the poor less well-insured? Evidence on vulnerability to income risk in rural China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1863, The World Bank.
  76. Todd E. Clark & Eric Van Wincoop, 1999. "Borders and business cycles," Staff Reports 91, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  77. Cesar Calvo & Stefan Dercon, 2005. "Measuring Individual Vulnerability," Economics Series Working Papers 229, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  78. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel & Tille, Cedric, 2000. "Competitive devaluations: toward a welfare-based approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 217-241, June.
  79. Easterly, William & Kraay, Aart, 2000. "Small States, Small Problems? Income, Growth, and Volatility in Small States," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2013-2027, November.
  80. Ligon, Ethan & Schechter, Laura, 2004. "Evaluating different approaches to estimating vulnerability," Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes 30159, The World Bank.
  81. L. Alan Winters, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty: What are the Links?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(9), pages 1339-1367, 09.
  82. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Volatility and Investment: Interpreting Evidence from Developing Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(262), pages 157-79, May.
  83. Holzmann, Robert, 2001. "Risk and vulnerability : the forward looking role of social protection in a globalizing world," Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes 23161, The World Bank.
  84. Wim Naude & Mark McGillivray & Stephanie Rossouw, 2009. "Measuring the Vulnerability of Subnational Regions in South Africa," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 249-276.
  85. Anderson, H.M. & Kwark, N.-S. & Vahid, F., 1999. "Does International Trade Synchronize Business Cycles?," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/99, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  86. David Dollar & Aart Kraay, 2004. "Trade, Growth, and Poverty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages F22-F49, 02.
  87. Morduch, J., 1995. "Poverty and Vulnerability," Papers 477, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
  88. Jagdish Bhagwati, 2002. "Trade and Poverty in the Poor Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 180-183, May.
  89. Alwang, Jeffrey & Siegel, Paul B. & Jorgensen, Steen L., 2001. "Vulnerability : a view from different disciplines," Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes 23304, The World Bank.
  90. Briguglio, Lino, 1995. "Small island developing states and their economic vulnerabilities," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(9), pages 1615-1632, September.
  91. Günther, Isabel & Harttgen, Kenneth, 2009. "Estimating Households Vulnerability to Idiosyncratic and Covariate Shocks: A Novel Method Applied in Madagascar," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1222-1234, July.
  92. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "Contagious Currency Crises: Channels of Conveyance," NBER Chapters, in: Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues (NBER-EASE volume 7), pages 29-56 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:39:y:2011:i:9:p:1489-1502. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.