IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/jdevst/v36y2000i6p25-53.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Vulnerability, seasonality and poverty in Ethiopia

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Dercon
  • Pramila Krishnan

Abstract

Most studies examining the dynamics of welfare have found large fluctuations in consumption over relatively short periods, suggesting substantial short-run movements in and out of poverty. The consequence is that cross-section poverty research may not be able to identify the poor. In this study, we explore this short-run variability further. We use a data set on a panel of 1450 households in different communities in rural Ethiopia, surveyed thrice, over 18 months. On average year-to-year poverty is very similar. However, we find high variability in consumption and poverty, over the seasons and year-by-year. Econometric analysis suggests that consumption is affected by idiosyncratic and common shocks, including rainfall and household-specific crop failure, while households respond to seasonal incentives related to changing labour demand and prices. The results imply that a larger number of households are vulnerable to shocks than implied by the standard poverty statistics, while some of the non-poor in these statistics are in fact otherwise poor households temporally boosting their consumption as an optimal response to changing seasonal incentives.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Dercon & Pramila Krishnan, 2000. "Vulnerability, seasonality and poverty in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 25-53.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:36:y:2000:i:6:p:25-53 DOI: 10.1080/00220380008422653
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00220380008422653
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Magnus Blomstrom & Ari Kokko & Mario Zejan, 1992. "Host Country Competition and Technology Transfer by Multinationals," NBER Working Papers 4131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Lapan, Harvey & Bardhan, Pranab, 1973. "Localized technical progress and transfer of technology and economic development," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 6(6), pages 585-595, December.
    3. Ronald Findlay, 1978. "Relative Backwardness, Direct Foreign Investment, and the Transfer of Technology: A Simple Dynamic Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 92(1), pages 1-16.
    4. Blomstrom, Magnus & Kokko, Ari, 1998. " Multinational Corporations and Spillovers," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 247-277, July.
    5. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    6. Wang, Jian-Ye & Blomstrom, Magnus, 1992. "Foreign investment and technology transfer : A simple model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 137-155, January.
    7. Harrison, Ann & Haddad, Mona, 1993. "Are there dynamic externalities from direct foreign investment? Evidence for Morocco," MPRA Paper 36279, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Haddad, Mona & Harrison, Ann, 1993. "Are there positive spillovers from direct foreign investment? : Evidence from panel data for Morocco," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 51-74, October.
    9. Kokko, Ari, 1994. "Technology, market characteristics, and spillovers," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 279-293, April.
    10. Caves, Richard E, 1974. "Multinational Firms, Competition, and Productivity in Host-Country Markets," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 41(162), pages 176-193, May.
    11. Blomstrom, Magnus & Persson, Hakan, 1983. "Foreign investment and spillover efficiency in an underdeveloped economy: Evidence from the Mexican manufacturing industry," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 11(6), pages 493-501, June.
    12. Steven Globerman, 1979. "Foreign Direct Investment and `Spillover' Efficiency Benefits in Canadian Manufacturing Industries," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 12(1), pages 42-56, February.
    13. Ari Kokko, 1996. "Productivity spillovers from competition between local firms and foreign affiliates," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 517-530.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:36:y:2000:i:6:p:25-53. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/FJDS20 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.