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Rising food prices and coping strategies : household-level evidence from Afghanistan

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  • D'Souza, Anna
  • Jolliffe, Dean

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of rising wheat prices -- during the 2007/08 global food crisis -- on food security in Afghanistan. Exploiting the temporal stratification of a unique nationally-representative household survey, the analysis finds evidence of large declines in real per capita food consumption and in food security (per capita calorie intake and household dietary diversity) corresponding to the price shocks. The data reveal smaller price elasticities with respect to calories than with respect to food consumption, suggesting that households trade off quality for quantity as they move toward staple foods and away from nutrient-rich foods such as meat and vegetables. In addition, there is increased demand in the face of price increases (Giffen good properties) for wheat products in urban areas. This study improves on country-level simulation studies by providing estimates of actual household wellbeing before and during the height of the global food crisis in one of the world's poorest, most food-insecure countries.

Suggested Citation

  • D'Souza, Anna & Jolliffe, Dean, 2010. "Rising food prices and coping strategies : household-level evidence from Afghanistan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5466, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5466
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    1. Block, Steven A. & Kiess, Lynnda & Webb, Patrick & Kosen, Soewarta & Moench-Pfanner, Regina & Bloem, Martin W. & Peter Timmer, C., 2004. "Macro shocks and micro outcomes: child nutrition during Indonesia's crisis," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 21-44, March.
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    5. Zahoor ul Haq & Hina Nazli & Karl Meilke, 2008. "Implications of high food prices for poverty in Pakistan," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 477-484, November.
    6. Angus Deaton & Salman Zaidi, 2002. "Guidelines for Constructing Consumption Aggregates for Welfare Analysis," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 14101.
    7. Simler, Kenneth R., 2010. "The short-term impact of higher food prices on poverty in Uganda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5210, The World Bank.
    8. Wodon, Quentin & Tsimpo, Clarence & Backiny-Yetna, Prospere & Joseph, George & Adoho, Franck & Coulombe, Harold, 2008. "Potential impact of higher food prices on poverty : summary estimates for a dozen west and central African countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4745, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Rama & Tara Béteille & Yue Li & Pradeep K. Mitra & John Lincoln Newman, 2015. "Addressing Inequality in South Asia," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 20395, April.
    2. Shabnam, Nadia & Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano & Seccia, Antonio & Asghar, Zahid, 2016. "The Impact of the Food Price Crises on the demand for nutrients in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 72971, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bove, Vincenzo & Gavrilova, Evelina, 2014. "Income and Livelihoods in the War in Afghanistan," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 113-131.
    4. Francesco Caracciolo & Fabio Gaetano Santeramo, 2013. "Price Trends and Income Inequalities: Will Sub-Saharan Africa Reduce the Gap?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 42-54, March.
    5. D'Souza, Anna & Jolliffe, Dean, 2011. "Food Security and Wheat Prices in Afghanistan: A Distribution-sensitive Analysis of Household-level Impacts," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103443, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Astrid Sneyers, "undated". "Food, Drought and Conflict Evidence from a Case-Study on Somalia," HiCN Working Papers 252, Households in Conflict Network.
    7. Andrew L. Dabalen & Saumik Paul, "undated". "Effect of Conflict on Dietary Energy Supply: Evidence from Cote d'Ivoire," Discussion Papers 12/09, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    8. World Bank, "undated". "South Asia Economic Focus, June 2011 : Food Inflation," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12662, The World Bank.
    9. Kumar, Neha & Quisumbing, Agnes R., 2013. "Gendered impacts of the 2007–2008 food price crisis: Evidence using panel data from rural Ethiopia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 11-22.
    10. Christophe Gouel, 2014. "Food Price Volatility and Domestic Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters,in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 261-306 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. D’Souza, Anna & Jolliffe, Dean, 2013. "Conflict, food price shocks, and food insecurity: The experience of Afghan households," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 32-47.
    12. Jolliffe,Dean Mitchell & Serajuddin,Umar, 2015. "Estimating poverty with panel data, comparably : an example from Jordan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7373, The World Bank.
    13. Kumar, Neha & Quisumbing, Agnes R., 2011. "Gendered impacts of the 2007-08 food price crisis: Evidence using panel data from rural Ethiopia," IFPRI discussion papers 1093, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    14. Nadia Shabnam & Fabio Gaetano Santeramo & Zahid Asghar & Antonio Seccia, 2016. "The Impact of Food Price Crises on the Demand for Nutrients in Pakistan," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 11(3), pages 305-327, December.
    15. Carman, Katherine Grace & Zamarro, Gema, 0. "Does Financial Literacy Contribute To Food Security?," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 4.
    16. Dabalen, Andrew L. & Paul, Saumik, 2014. "Effect of Conflict on Dietary Diversity: Evidence from Côte d’Ivoire," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 143-158.
    17. Mohiburrahman Iqbal, 2013. "Vulnerability to expected poverty in Afghanistan," ASARC Working Papers 2013-14, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
    18. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2014. "Short- and long-run impacts of food price changes on poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7011, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Food&Beverage Industry; Regional Economic Development; Rural Poverty Reduction; Nutrition;

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty

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