IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea13/150700.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

High Food Prices and their Implications for Poverty in Uganda From Demand System Estimation to Simulation

Author

Listed:
  • Boysen, Ole

Abstract

This paper represents an initial attempt at assessing the importance of estimated demand systems for the simulation of large price shocks with respect to poverty analysis. Using a Ugandan household survey data set and an estimated flexible demand system, three different approaches to simulating the compensated expenditure budget due to large food price shocks are compared: a non-behavioral microaccounting, and three behavioral demand systems (LES, CDE, and QUAIDS). The aim of this study is twofold. First, to provide an indication whether it is worthwhile to invest in the estimation of a demand system for similar consumption side poverty impact analyses. Second, to provide a sense of the magnitude in the loss of fidelity from using a less flexible instead of a more flexible demand system within computable general equilibrium analyses of poverty impacts. The results show that using no demand system overestimates poverty impacts to quite some extent. The differences between using either of the three demand systems are rather small but may be more substantial in the extremes.

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen, Ole, 2013. "High Food Prices and their Implications for Poverty in Uganda From Demand System Estimation to Simulation," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150700, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea13:150700
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.150700
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/150700/files/AAEA%20_Ole%20Boysen_.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.150700?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2004. "Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 99-129, January.
    2. Bjarne Jensen & Paul Boer & Jan Daal & Peter Jensen, 2011. "Global restrictions on the parameters of the CDES indirect utility function," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 102(3), pages 217-235, April.
    3. Hanoch, Giora, 1975. "Production and Demand Models with Direct or Indirect Implicit Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 43(3), pages 395-419, May.
    4. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank.
    5. Maros Ivanic & Will Martin, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low‐income countries1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 405-416, November.
    6. Ole Boysen, 2016. "Food Demand Characteristics in Uganda: Estimation and Policy Relevance," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(2), pages 260-293, June.
    7. Aksoy , M. Ataman & Isik-Dikmelik, Aylin, 2008. "Are low food prices pro-poor ? net food buyers and sellers in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4642, The World Bank.
    8. James Banks & Richard Blundell & Arthur Lewbel, 1997. "Quadratic Engel Curves And Consumer Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 527-539, November.
    9. Todd Benson & Samuel Mugarura & Kelly Wanda, 2008. "Impacts in Uganda of rising global food prices: the role of diversified staples and limited price transmission," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 513-524, November.
    10. Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-766, May.
    12. Simler, Kenneth R., 2010. "The short-term impact of higher food prices on poverty in Uganda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5210, The World Bank.
    13. Vartia, Yrjo O, 1983. "Efficient Methods of Measuring Welfare Change and Compensated Income in Terms of Ordinary Demand Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 79-98, January.
    14. Wodon, Quentin & Tsimpo, Clarence & Backiny-Yetna, Prospere & Joseph, George & Adoho, Franck & Coulombe, Harold, 2008. "Potential impact of higher food prices on poverty : summary estimates for a dozen west and central African countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4745, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ole Boysen, 2019. "When does specification or aggregation across consumers matter for economic impact analysis models? An investigation into demand systems," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 137-172, January.
    2. Boysen, Ole & Matthews, Alan, 2012. "The differentiated effects of food price spikes on poverty in Uganda," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122445, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Sami Bibi & Massa Coulibaly & John Cockburn & Luca Tiberti, 2009. "L'impact de la hausse des prix des produits alimentaires sur la pauvreté des enfants et les reponses politiques au Mali," Papers inwopa09/60, Innocenti Working Papers.
    4. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will & Zaman, Hassan, 2012. "Estimating the Short-Run Poverty Impacts of the 2010–11 Surge in Food Prices," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(11), pages 2302-2317.
    5. Anna D'Souza & Dean Jolliffe, 2012. "Rising Food Prices and Coping Strategies: Household-level Evidence from Afghanistan," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 282-299, August.
    6. Ivanic, Maros, 2012. "How appropriate are global models for long-run poverty assessment?," Conference papers 332213, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Joseph V. Balagtas & Humnath Bhandari & Ellanie R. Cabrera & Samarendu Mohanty & Mahabub Hossain, 2014. "Did the commodity price spike increase rural poverty? Evidence from a long-run panel in Bangladesh," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(3), pages 303-312, May.
    8. Derek Headey & Shenggen Fan, 2008. "Anatomy of a crisis: the causes and consequences of surging food prices," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 375-391, November.
    9. Backiny Yetna, Prosper Romuald, 2013. "Politiques publiques et pauvreté : trois études de cas d'évaluation des performances de ciblage et d'analyse d'impact," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/11794 edited by De Vreyer, Philippe.
    10. Estrades, Carmen & Terra, María Inés, 2012. "Commodity prices, trade, and poverty in Uruguay," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 58-66.
    11. Joseph Mawejje, 2016. "Food prices, energy and climate shocks in Uganda," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, December.
    12. Benson, Todd & Minot, Nicholas & Pender, John & Robles, Miguel & von Braun, Joachim, 2013. "Information to guide policy responses to higher global food prices: The data and analyses required," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 47-58.
    13. Juhee Singh Verma & Pritee Sharma, 2021. "Vulnerability of Small Farmers to High Food Prices – A Case Study of Indian Farmers," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 74-88.
    14. Ian Coxhead & Vu Hoang Linh & Le Dong Tam, 2012. "Global market shocks and poverty in Vietnam: the case of rice," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(5), pages 575-592, September.
    15. Joseph Mawejje, 2016. "Food prices, energy and climate shocks in Uganda," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, December.
    16. Teguh Dartanto, 2010. "Volatility of World Rice Prices, Import Tariffs and Poverty in Indonesia : A CGE-Microsimulation Analysis," Economics and Finance in Indonesia, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, vol. 58, pages 335-364, December.
    17. Clovis Freire & Alberto Isgut, 2011. "High Food and Oil Prices and Their Impact on the Achievement of MDG 1 in Asia and the Pacific," MPDD Working Paper Series WP/11/18, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
    18. G. Jacoby , Hanan & Dasgupta, Basab, 2014. "Household Exposure to Food Price Shocks in Rural Bangladesh," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 37(1-2), pages 83-100, March-Jun.
    19. Giovanni Andrea Cornia & Laura Deotti & Maria Sassi, "undated". "Food Price Volatility over the Last Decade in Niger and Malawi: Extent, Sources and Impact on Child Malnutrition," UNDP Africa Policy Notes 2012-002, United Nations Development Programme, Regional Bureau for Africa.
    20. Kijima, Yoko & Otsuka, Keijiro & Sserunkuuma, Dick, 2011. "An Inquiry into Constraints on a Green Revolution in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of NERICA Rice in Uganda," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 77-86, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; International Relations/Trade;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea13:150700. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.