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High Food and Oil Prices and Their Impact on the Achievement of MDG 1 in Asia and the Pacific

Author

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  • Clovis Freire

    () (Macroeconomic Policy and Financing for Development Division, ESCAP)

  • Alberto Isgut

    () (Macroeconomic Policy and Financing for Development Division, ESCAP)

Abstract

This paper estimates the impact of the high food prices of 2010 on income poverty and the achievement of MDG 1 in Asia and the Pacific. It also estimates the impacts of high price during 2011 under various scenarios for the prices of food and oil. We find that although the high food prices of 2010 have not caused an increase in poverty in the region, they slowed down the rate of poverty reduction - the estimated number of poor decreased by 24.5 million people between 2009 and 2010, compared with 43.8 million people if staple food prices had not increased above domestic rates of inflation. By detailing the methodology and assumptions used to produce our estimates, the paper also highlights the need for broader and more open discussion on methodological issues to provide policymakers and poverty data users with a better understanding of the limitations of any such exercise.

Suggested Citation

  • Clovis Freire & Alberto Isgut, 2011. "High Food and Oil Prices and Their Impact on the Achievement of MDG 1 in Asia and the Pacific," MPDD Working Paper Series WP/11/18, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
  • Handle: RePEc:unt:wpmpdd:wp/11/18
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    File URL: http://www.unescap.org/pdd/publications/workingpaper/wp_11_18.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alberto Zezza & Benjamin Davis & Carlo Azzarri & Katia Covarrubias & Luca Tasciotti & Gustavo Anriquez, 2008. "The Impact of Rising Food Prices on the Poor," Working Papers 08-07, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA).
    2. Misselhorn, Mark & Klasen, Stephan, 2006. "Determinants of the Growth Semi-Elasticity of Poverty Reduction," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2006 15, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    3. de Janvry, Alain & Sadoulet, Eliisabeth, 2009. "The Impact of Rising Food Prices on Household Welfare in India," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt7xj9n1qq, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    4. Sébastien Dessus & Santiago Herrera & Rafael de Hoyos, 2008. "The impact of food inflation on urban poverty and its monetary cost: some back-of-the-envelope calculations," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 417-429, November.
    5. Wodon, Quentin & Tsimpo, Clarence & Backiny-Yetna, Prospere & Joseph, George & Adoho, Franck & Coulombe, Harold, 2008. "Potential impact of higher food prices on poverty : summary estimates for a dozen west and central African countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4745, The World Bank.
    6. Bussolo, Maurizio & De Hoyos, Rafael E. & Medvedev, Denis & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2007. "Global growth and distribution : are China and India reshaping the world?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4392, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aye, Goodness C., 2012. "The Long and Short Run Impacts of Food and Energy Price Shocks: Evidence from Nigeria," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Freemantle, Australia 125048, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    2. David Dawe, 2014. "Transmission of global food prices, supply response and impacts on the poor," Chapters,in: Handbook on Food, chapter 5, pages 100-121 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Clovis Freire & Aynul Hasan & M. Hussain Malik, 2012. "High Food Prices in Asia-Pacific: Policy Initiatives in view of Supply Uncertainty and Price Volatility," MPDD Working Paper Series WP/12/01, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poverty measurement; food prices; Millennium Development Goals;

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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