Global Growth and Distribution: Are China and India Reshaping the World?
Over the past 20 years, aggregate measures of global inequality have changed little even if significant structural changes have been observed. High growth rates of China and India lifted millions out of poverty, while the stagnation in many African countries caused them to fall behind. Using the World Bank?s LINKAGE global general equilibrium model and the newly developed Global Income Distribution Dynamics (GIDD) tool, this paper assesses the distribution and poverty effects of a scenario where these trends continue in the future. Even by anticipating a deceleration, growth in China and India is a key force behind the expected convergence of per capita incomes at the global level. Millions of Chinese and Indian consumers will enter into a rapidly emerging global middle class?a group of people who can afford, and demand access to, the standards of living previously reserved mainly for the residents of developed countries. Notwithstanding these positive developments, fast growth is often characterized by high urbanization and growing demand for skills, both of which result in a widening of income distribution within countries. These opposing distributional effects highlight the importance of analysing global disparities by taking into account?as the GIDD does?income dynamics between and within countries.
|Date of creation:||2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Katajanokanlaituri 6B, 00160 Helsinki|
Web page: http://www.wider.unu.edu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Warwick J. McKibbin, 2005.
"The Global Macroeconomic Consequences Of A Demographic Transition,"
CAMA Working Papers
2006-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Warwick J. McKibbin, 2006. "The Global Macroeconomic Consequences of a Demographic Transition," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 92-134, January.
- Gordon, Robert J, 2000.
"Does the 'New Economy' Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2607, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "Does the "New Economy" Measure Up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 49-74, Fall.
- Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," NBER Working Papers 7833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- François Bourguignon & Maurizio Bussolo & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2008. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution : Macro-Micro Evaluation Techniques and Tools," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6586, April.
- Milanovic, Branko & Shlomo Yitzhaki, 2001.
"Decomposing world income distribution : does the world have a middle class ?,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
2562, The World Bank.
- Milanovic, Branko & Yitzhaki, Shlomo, 2002. "Decomposing World Income Distribution: Does the World Have a Middle Class?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 48(2), pages 155-78, June.
- Bussolo, Maurizio & Lay, Jann & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2006. "Structural change and poverty reduction in Brazil : the impact of the Doha Round," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3833, The World Bank.
- John F. Helliwell, 2004.
"Demographic Changes and International Factor Mobility,"
NBER Working Papers
10945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John F. Helliwell, 2004. "Demographic changes and international factor mobility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 369-420.
- David, Paul A, 1990. "The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 355-61, May.
- Branko Milanovic, 2005.
"Global Income Inequality: What It Is And Why It Matters?,"
- Branko Milanovic, 2006. "Global Income Inequality: What It Is And Why It Matters?," Working Papers 26, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
- Milanovic, Branko, 2006. "Global income inequality : what it is and why it matters," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3865, The World Bank.
- François Bourguignon & Christian Morrisson, 2002.
"Inequality Among World Citizens: 1820-1992,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 727-744, September.
- Quah, Danny T, 1996.
"Twin Peaks: Growth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1045-55, July.
- Quah, Danny, 1996. "Twin Peaks: Growth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 1355, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Branko Milanovic, 2002.
"True World Income Distribution, 1988 and 1993: First Calculation Based on Household Surveys Alone,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(476), pages 51-92, January.
- Branko milanovic, 2003. "True world income distribution, 1988 and 1993: First calculation based on household surveys alo," HEW 0305002, EconWPA.
- Milanovic, Branko, 1999. "True world income distribution, 1988 and 1993 - first calculations, based on household surveys alone," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2244, The World Bank.
- Cowell, Frank A & Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "How Much Inequality Can We Explain? A Methodology and an Application to the United States," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 421-30, March.
- L. Alan Winters & Shahid Yusuf, 2007. "Dancing with the Giants: China, India, and the Global Economy," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6632, April.
- Rod Tyers & Qun Shi, 2006. "Global Demographic Change, Labour Force Growth and Economic Performance," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-462, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
- Danny Quah, 1996. "Twin Peaks: Growth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics," CEP Discussion Papers dp0280, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Francisco H. G. Ferreira & Phillippe G. Leite, 2003. "Meeting the Millennium Development Goals in Brazil: Can Microeconomic Simulations Help?," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 235-280, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-29. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bruck Tadesse)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.