Global Demographic Change, Labour Force Growth and Economic Performance
The fertility declines associated with the final phase of the global demographic transition have led to accelerated ageing of populations in developed countries and in several advanced developing countries. This paper introduces a global demographic sub-model, from which emerge the global implications of these changes for population sizes, age distributions and gender compositions. Corresponding changes are inferred in labour force size, and in patterns of consumption and saving and these are then analysed by incorporating the demographic sub-model into a correspondingly global economic model, based originally on GTAP-Dynamic, in which regional households are disaggregated by age group and gender. As an application of the combined model the effects of increased longevity are explored on a global scale. Growth in real per capita incomes is slowed by this change, average saving rates fall and the distribution of global economic activity alters to favour those regions with high aged labour force participation.
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