Global Demographic Change, Labour Force Growth and Economic Performance
The fertility declines associated with the final phase of the global demographic transition have led to accelerated ageing of populations in developed countries and in several advanced developing countries. This paper introduces a global demographic sub-model, from which emerge the global implications of these changes for population sizes, age distributions and gender compositions. Corresponding changes are inferred in labour force size, and in patterns of consumption and saving and these are then analysed by incorporating the demographic sub-model into a correspondingly global economic model, based originally on GTAP-Dynamic, in which regional households are disaggregated by age group and gender. As an application of the combined model the effects of increased longevity are explored on a global scale. Growth in real per capita incomes is slowed by this change, average saving rates fall and the distribution of global economic activity alters to favour those regions with high aged labour force participation.
|Date of creation:||May 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +61 2 6125 3807
Fax: +61 2 6125 0744
Web page: http://rse.anu.edu.au/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000.
"The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?,"
NBER Working Papers
7777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff & Ben Bernanke & Kenneth Rogoff, . "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is there a Common Cause?," Working Paper 32326, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," International Trade 0012003, EconWPA.
- Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt0sx02651, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C00-112, University of California at Berkeley.
- Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
- Barro, R.J. & Becker, G.S., 1988.
"Fertility Choice In A Model Of Economic Growth,"
University of Chicago - Economics Research Center
88-8, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
- Robert J. Barro & Gary S. Becker, . "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 88-8, Chicago - Population Research Center.
- Orazio Attanasio & James Banks, 1998. "Trends in household saving don't justify tax incentives to boost saving," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 13(27), pages 547-583, October.
- Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin & Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 06/9, International Monetary Fund.
- Martin MÃ¼hleisen & Hamid Faruqee, 2001.
"Population Aging in Japan; Demographic Shock and Fiscal Sustainability,"
IMF Working Papers
01/40, International Monetary Fund.
- Faruqee, Hamid & Muhleisen, Martin, 2003. "Population aging in Japan: demographic shock and fiscal sustainability," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 185-210, April.
- Ron Duncan & Qun Shi & Rod Tyers, 2004. "Demographic Change and Demand for Food in Australia," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2004-441, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
- Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
- Kitamura, Yukinobu & Takayama, Noriyuki & Arita, Fumiko, 2001. "Household Savings and Wealth Distribution in Japan," Discussion Paper 38, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Harrigan, James, 1995. "The Volume of Trade in Differentiated Intermediate Goods: Theory and Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(2), pages 283-93, May.
- John Gibson & Grant Scobie, 2001. "A cohort analysis of household income, consumption and saving," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 196-216.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2006-462. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.