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Global Demographic Change, Labour Force Growth and Economic Performance

  • Rod Tyers

    ()

  • Qun Shi

The fertility declines associated with the final phase of the global demographic transition have led to accelerated ageing of populations in developed countries and in several advanced developing countries. This paper introduces a global demographic sub-model, from which emerge the global implications of these changes for population sizes, age distributions and gender compositions. Corresponding changes are inferred in labour force size, and in patterns of consumption and saving and these are then analysed by incorporating the demographic sub-model into a correspondingly global economic model, based originally on GTAP-Dynamic, in which regional households are disaggregated by age group and gender. As an application of the combined model the effects of increased longevity are explored on a global scale. Growth in real per capita incomes is slowed by this change, average saving rates fall and the distribution of global economic activity alters to favour those regions with high aged labour force participation.

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File URL: http://cbe.anu.edu.au/researchpapers/econ/wp462.pdf
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Paper provided by Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics in its series ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics with number 2006-462.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: May 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2006-462
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  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," International Trade 0012003, EconWPA.
  2. Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
  3. Barro, Robert J & Becker, Gary S, 1989. "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 481-501, March.
  4. Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin & Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 06/9, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
  6. John Gibson & Grant Scobie, 2001. "A cohort analysis of household income, consumption and saving," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 196-216.
  7. Ron Duncan & Qun Shi & Rod Tyers, 2004. "Demographic Change and Demand for Food in Australia," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2004-441, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  8. Harrigan, James, 1995. "The Volume of Trade in Differentiated Intermediate Goods: Theory and Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(2), pages 283-93, May.
  9. Orazio Attanasio & James Banks, 1998. "Trends in household saving don't justify tax incentives to boost saving," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 13(27), pages 547-583, October.
  10. Martin Mühleisen & Hamid Faruqee, 2001. "Population Aging in Japan; Demographic Shock and Fiscal Sustainability," IMF Working Papers 01/40, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Kitamura, Yukinobu & Takayama, Noriyuki & Arita, Fumiko, 2001. "Household Savings and Wealth Distribution in Japan," Discussion Paper 38, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
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