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Global Demographic Change And Japanese Macroeconomic Performance

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  • Warwick J. McKibbin

Abstract

The world is in the midst of a significant demographic transition with important implications for the macroeconomic performance of the global economy. This paper summarizes the key features of the current and projected future demographic change that are likely to have macroeconomic effects. It then develops and applies a new ten region DSGE model (the MSG3 model) incorporating demographic dynamics, to examine the impacts of projected global demographic change on the world economy from 2005 to 2100. The focus in this paper is on Japan and the effects of demographic change on recent Japanese macroeconomic performance as well as projected performance over the remainder of this century. A distinction is made between the effects on Japan of demographic change that occurs in Japan and the effects on Japan of the equally large demographic changes occurring in the rest of the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Warwick J. McKibbin, 2005. "Global Demographic Change And Japanese Macroeconomic Performance," CAMA Working Papers 2005-13, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2005-13
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2017-02/13_mckibbin_2005.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Noriyuki Takayama & Yukinobu Kitamura & Hiroshi Yoshida, 1999. "Generational Accounting in Japan," NBER Chapters,in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 447-470 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    9. Horioka, C.Y., 1989. "The Determinants Of Japan'S Saving Rate: The Impact Of The Age Structure Of The Population And Other Factors," ISER Discussion Paper 0189, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
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    12. Chan, Ming Ming & Shi, Qun & Tyers, Rodney, 2005. "Global Demographic Change and Economic Performance: Implications for Agricultural Markets," 2005 Conference (49th), February 9-11, 2005, Coff's Harbour, Australia 137808, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Soyoung & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2008. "Demographic changes, saving, and current account: An analysis based on a panel VAR model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 236-256, March.
    2. Gehlhar, Mark J. & Dohlman, Erik & Brooks, Nora L. & Jerardo, Alberto & Vollrath, Thomas L., 2007. "Global Growth, Macroeconomic Change, and U.S. Agricultural Trade," Economic Research Report 55963, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Gehlhar, Mark J. & Dohlman, Erik, 2006. "Macroeconomic and Global Growth Influences on the U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21324, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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