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Global Growth, Macroeconomic Change, and U.S. Agricultural Trade


  • Gehlhar, Mark J.
  • Dohlman, Erik
  • Brooks, Nora L.
  • Jerardo, Alberto
  • Vollrath, Thomas L.


After a decade of uneven export growth and rapidly growing imports, U.S. agriculture has begun to reassert its position in global trade markets. Rising exports and signs of moderating demand for imports mark a departure from previous trends. This report places past trends and emerging developments in perspective by spotlighting the role of two specific factors that help steer U.S. agricultural trade patterns: global growth and shifts in foreign economic activity that affect U.S. exports, and macroeconomic factors underlying the growth of U.S. imports. Consistent with actual changes in the level and destination of U.S. exports, model simulations corroborate the contention that renewed export growth can be sustained by expanding incomes and growing food import demand in emerging economies. In contrast, the rapid growth of U.S. agricultural imports appears less related to domestic income growth than to changing consumer preferences and other, perhaps less sustainable, macroeconomic conditions that fostered the growth of U.S. current account deficits.

Suggested Citation

  • Gehlhar, Mark J. & Dohlman, Erik & Brooks, Nora L. & Jerardo, Alberto & Vollrath, Thomas L., 2007. "Global Growth, Macroeconomic Change, and U.S. Agricultural Trade," Economic Research Report 55963, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:55963

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2007. "The Unsustainable U.S. Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Chapters,in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 339-376 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    4. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through into import prices: a macro or micro phenomenon?," Staff Reports 149, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Shane, Mathew & Roe, Terry L. & Langrock, Ines, 2004. "Exchange Rates, Foreign Income, and U.S. Agricultural Trade," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20042, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
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    7. Dohlman, Erik & Osborne, Stefan & Lohmar, Bryan, 2003. "Dynamics of Agricultural Competitiveness: Policy Lessons From Abroad," Amber Waves, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, April.
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    9. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685.
    10. Warwick J. McKibbin, 2005. "Global Demographic Change And Japanese Macroeconomic Performance," CAMA Working Papers 2005-13, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. W. Max Corden, 2006. "Those Current Account Imbalances: A Sceptical View," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2006n13, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
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    Cited by:

    1. Baek, Jungho & Koo, Won W. & Mulik, Kranti, 2009. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Bilateral Trade Balance: The Case of U.S. Agriculture," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(02), pages 213-228, October.


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