Projecting World Food Demand Using Alternative Demand Systems
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are increasingly being used to project world food markets in order to support forward-looking policy analysis. Such projections hinge critically on the underlying functional form for representing consumer demand. Simple functional forms can lead to unrealistic projections by failing to capture changes in income elasticities of demand. We adopt as our benchmark the recently introduced AIDADS demand system and compare it with several alternative demand systems currently in widespread use in CGE models. This comparison is conducted in the context of projections for disaggregated global food demand using a global CGE model. We find that AIDADS represents a substantial improvement, particularly for the rapidly growing developing countries. For these economies, the most widely used demand systems tend to over-predict future food demands, and hence overestimate future production and import requirements for agricultural products.
|Date of creation:||2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Note:||GTAP Working Paper No. 21|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 1145 Krannert Building, West Lafayette, IN 47907-1145|
Phone: (765) 494-4267
Fax: 765 494-9176
Web page: http://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mitchell,Donald O. & Ingco,Merlinda D. & Duncan,Ronald C., 1997.
"The World Food Outlook,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521589840, june. pag.
- Bach, Christian Friis, et al, 2000. "Market Growth, Structural Change, and the Gains from the Uruguay Round," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 295-310, May.
- Thomas W. Hertel & Zhi Wang & Wusheng Yu, 1998.
"Understanding the Determinants of Structural Change in World Food Markets,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1051-1061.
- Coyle, William T. & Mark Gehlhar & Thomas W. Hertel & Zhi Wang & Wusheng Yu, 1998. "Understanding the Determinants of structural Change in World Food Markets," GTAP Working Papers 260, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Christensen, Laurits R & Jorgenson, Dale W & Lau, Lawrence J, 1975. "Transcendental Logarithmic Utility Functions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 367-83, June.
- Lewbel, Arthur, 1991. "The Rank of Demand Systems: Theory and Nonparametric Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 711-30, May.
- Jean-Marc Burniaux & François Delorme & Ian Lienert & John P. Martin & Peter Hoeller, 1988. "Quantifying the Economy-Wide Effects of Agricultural Policies: A General Equilibrium Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 55, OECD Publishing.
- John Cranfield & Paul Preckel & James Eales & Thomas Hertel, 2000. "On the estimation of 'an implicitly additive demand system'," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(15), pages 1907-1915.
- J. A. L. Cranfield & James S. Eales & Thomas W. Hertel & Paul V. Preckel, 2003. "Model selection when estimating and predicting consumer demands using international, cross section data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 353-364, 04.
- Anderson, Kym & Dimaranan, Betina & Hertel, Thomas W & Martin, Will, 1996.
"Asia-Pacific Food Markets and Trade in 2005: A Global, Economy-wide Perspective,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1474, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Anderson, Kym & Dimaranan, Betina V. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Martin, William J., 1997. "Asia-Pacific food markets and trade in 2005: a global, economy-wide perspective," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(1), March.
- Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, March.
- Jean-Marc Burniaux & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 1991. "Trade Policies in a Global Context: Technical Specifications of the Rural/Urban-North/South (RUNS) Applied General Equilibrium Model," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 48, OECD Publishing.
- Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-26, June.
- Cranfield, John & James Eales & Thomas W. Hertel & Paul Preckel, 1998.
"Changes in the Structure of Global Food Demand,"
GTAP Working Papers
295, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Clements, Kenneth W & Selvanathan, Saroja, 1994.
"Understanding Consumption Patterns,"
Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 69-110.
- Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Steinfeld, Henning & Ehui, Simeon K. & Courbois, Claude, 1999.
"Livestock to 2020: the next food revolution,"
2020 vision discussion papers
28, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Theil, Henri, 1983. "World Product and Income: A Review Article," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 505-17, June.
- Nin, Alejandro & Hertel, Thomas W. & Foster, Kenneth & Rae, Allan, 2004. "Productivity growth, catching-up and uncertainty in China's meat trade," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 1-16, July.
- Hanoch, Giora, 1975. "Production and Demand Models with Direct or Indirect Implicit Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 43(3), pages 395-419, May.
- Maureen T. Rimmer & Alan A. Powell, 1992. "Demand Patterns Across the Development Spectrum: Estimates for the AIDADS System," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers op-75, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gta:workpp:1182. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jeremy Douglas)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.