Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are increasingly being used to project world food markets in order to support forward-looking policy analysis. Such projections hinge critically on the underlying functional form for representing consumer demand. Simple functional forms can lead to unrealistic projections by failing to capture changes in income elasticities of demand. We adopt as our benchmark the recently introduced AIDADS demand system and compare it with several alternative demand systems currently in widespread use in CGE models. This comparison is conducted in the context of projections for disaggregated global food demand using a global CGE model. We find that AIDADS represents a substantial improvement, particularly for the rapidly growing developing countries. For these economies, the most widely used demand systems tend to over-predict future food demands, and hence overestimate future production and import requirements for agricultural products.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mitchell,Donald O. & Ingco,Merlinda D. & Duncan,Ronald C., 1997.
"The World Food Outlook,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521589840, August.
- Mitchell,Donald O. & Ingco,Merlinda D. & Duncan,Ronald C., 1997. "The World Food Outlook," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521580106, October.
- Hanoch, Giora, 1975. "Production and Demand Models with Direct or Indirect Implicit Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 43(3), pages 395-419, May.
- Thomas W. Hertel & Zhi Wang & Wusheng Yu, 1998. "Understanding the Determinants of Structural Change in World Food Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1051-1061.
- Coyle, William T. & Mark Gehlhar & Thomas W. Hertel & Zhi Wang & Wusheng Yu, 1998. "Understanding the Determinants of structural Change in World Food Markets," GTAP Working Papers 260, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Jean-Marc Burniaux & François Delorme & Ian Lienert & John P. Martin & Peter Hoeller, 1988. "Quantifying the Economy-Wide Effects of Agricultural Policies: A General Equilibrium Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 55, OECD Publishing.
- John A.L. Cranfield & Thomas W. Hertel & James S. Eales & Paul V. Preckel, 1998. "Changes in the Structure of Global Food Demand," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1042-1050.
- Cranfield, John & James Eales & Thomas W. Hertel & Paul Preckel, 1998. "Changes in the Structure of Global Food Demand," GTAP Working Papers 295, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Steinfeld, Henning & Ehui, Simeon K. & Courbois, Claude, 1999. "Livestock to 2020: the next food revolution," 2020 vision briefs 61, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Steinfeld, Henning & Ehui, Simeon K. & Courbois, Claude, 1999. "Livestock to 2020: the next food revolution," 2020 vision discussion papers 28, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Nin, Alejandro & Hertel, Thomas W. & Foster, Kenneth & Rae, Allan, 2004. "Productivity growth, catching-up and uncertainty in China's meat trade," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 1-16, July.
- Theil, Henri, 1983. "World Product and Income: A Review Article," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 505-517, June.
- Bach, Christian Friis, et al, 2000. "Market Growth, Structural Change, and the Gains from the Uruguay Round," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 295-310, May.
- Christensen, Laurits R & Jorgenson, Dale W & Lau, Lawrence J, 1975. "Transcendental Logarithmic Utility Functions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 367-383, June.
- John Cranfield & Paul Preckel & James Eales & Thomas Hertel, 2000. "On the estimation of 'an implicitly additive demand system'," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(15), pages 1907-1915.
- Jean-Marc Burniaux & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 1991. "Trade Policies in a Global Context: Technical Specifications of the Rural/Urban-North/South (RUNS) Applied General Equilibrium Model," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 48, OECD Publishing.
- Anderson, Kym & Dimaranan, Betina V. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Martin, William J., 1997. "Asia-Pacific food markets and trade in 2005: a global, economy-wide perspective," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(1), March.
- Anderson, Kym & Dimaranan, Betina & Hertel, Thomas W & Martin, Will, 1996. "Asia-Pacific Food Markets and Trade in 2005: A Global, Economy-wide Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 1474, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lewbel, Arthur, 1991. "The Rank of Demand Systems: Theory and Nonparametric Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 711-730, May.
- Clements, Kenneth W & Selvanathan, Saroja, 1994. "Understanding Consumption Patterns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 69-110.
- K.W. Clements & S. Selvanathan, 1992. "Understanding Consumption Patterns," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 92-13, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
- Maureen T. Rimmer & Alan A. Powell, 1992. "Demand Patterns Across the Development Spectrum: Estimates for the AIDADS System," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers op-75, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
- J. A. L. Cranfield & James S. Eales & Thomas W. Hertel & Paul V. Preckel, 2003. "Model selection when estimating and predicting consumer demands using international, cross section data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 353-364, 04.
- Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685.
- Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-326, June. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:21:y:2004:i:1:p:99-129. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.