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Nutrition Transition and the Structure of Global Food Demand

Author

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  • Christophe Gouel

    () (ECO-PUB - Economie Publique - AgroParisTech - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Market, Trade, and Institutions Division - International Food Policy Research Institute)

  • Houssein Guimbard

    () (Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales)

Abstract

Estimating future demand for food is a critical aspect of global food security analyses. The process linking dietary changes to wealth is known as the nutrition transition and presents well-identified features that help to predict consumption changes in poor countries. This study proposes to represent the nutrition transition with a nonhomothetic, flexible-in-income demand system. The resulting model is estimated statistically based on cross-sectional information from FAOSTAT. The model captures the main features of the nutrition transition: rise in demand for calories associated with income growth; diversification of diets away from starchy staples; and a large increase in caloric demand for animal-based products, fats, and sweeteners. The estimated model is used to project food demand between 2010 and 2050 based on a set of plausible futures (trend projections and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios). The main results of these projections are: (a) global food demand will increase by 47%, less than half the growth in the previous four decades; (b) this growth will be attributable mainly to lower-middle-income and low-income countries; (c) the structure of global food demand will change over the period, with a doubling of demand for animal-based calories and a much smaller 19% increase in demand for starchy staples; and (d) the analysis of a range of population and income projections reveals important uncertainties—depending on the scenario, the projected increases in demand for animal-based and vegetal-based calories range from 74% to 114%, and from 20% to 42%, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Gouel & Houssein Guimbard, 2018. "Nutrition Transition and the Structure of Global Food Demand," Post-Print hal-01820555, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01820555
    DOI: 10.1093/ajae/aay030
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01820555
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    Cited by:

    1. Subir Bairagi & Samarendu Mohanty & Sampriti Baruah & Huong Trinh Thi, 2020. "Changing food consumption patterns in rural and urban Vietnam: Implications for a future food supply system," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), pages 750-775, July.
    2. Cecilia Bellora & Élodie Blanc & Jean-Marc Bourgeon & Eric Strobl, 2018. "Estimating the Impact of Crop Diversity on Agricultural Productivity in South Africa," NBER Chapters, in: Agricultural Productivity and Producer Behavior, pages 185-215, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Dorin, Bruno & Joly, Pierre-Benoît, 2020. "Modelling world agriculture as a learning machine? From mainstream models to Agribiom 1.0," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    4. Bruno Dorin & Pierre-Benoît Joly, 2020. "Modelling world agriculture as a learning machine? From mainstream models to Agribiom 1.0," Post-Print hal-02106267, HAL.
    5. Christophe Gouel & Houssein Guimbard, 2019. "Nutrition Transition and the Structure of Global Food Demand," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 101(2), pages 383-403.
    6. Sellare, Jorge & Meemken, Eva-Marie & Qaim, Matin, 2020. "Fairtrade, Agrochemical Input Use, and Effects on Human Health and the Environment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    7. Fukase, Emiko & Martin, Will, 2020. "Economic growth, convergence, and world food demand and supply," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    8. Yang, Anton C. & Gouel, Christophe & Hertel, Thomas W., 2018. "Will Income or Population be the Main Driver of Food Demand Growth to 2050?," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274146, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Sana Khushi & Sajid Rashid Ahmad & Ather Ashraf & Muhammad Imran, 0. "Spatially analyzing food consumption inequalities using GIS with disaggregated data from Punjab, Pakistan," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 0, pages 1-16.
    10. Mun Ho & Wolfgang Britz & Ruth Delzeit & Florian Leblanc & Roberto Roson & Franziska Schuenemann & Matthias Weitzel, 2020. "Modelling Consumption and Constructing Long-Term Baselines in Final Demand," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 63-108, June.
    11. Gouel, Christophe & LaBorde, David, 2017. "The Crucial Role of International Trade in Adaptation to Climate Change," 2017: Globalization Adrift, December 3-5, 2017, Washington, D.C. 266841, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    12. Beye, Assane & Komarek, Adam M., 2020. "Quantification and benefits of reducing post-harvest losses: Evidence for vegetables in Senegal," Discussion Papers 305681, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bennett’s law; food demand; food security; nutrition transition; numerical models; transition nutritionnelle; modèle; sécurité alimentaire; demande alimentaire;

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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