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Productivity Growth And Catching-Up: Implications For China'S Trade In Livestock Products

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  • Nin Pratt, Alejandro
  • Hertel, Thomas W.
  • Foster, Kenneth A.
  • Rae, Allan N.

Abstract

We develop projections of China's likely meat trade in the year 2010 using a general equilibrium model in conjunction with forecasts of productivity growth rates and macro-economic forecasts. Interestingly, macro-economic uncertainty appears to be more important in driving China's net trade position in meats than is sector-specific supply uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Nin Pratt, Alejandro & Hertel, Thomas W. & Foster, Kenneth A. & Rae, Allan N., 2001. "Productivity Growth And Catching-Up: Implications For China'S Trade In Livestock Products," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20590, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea01:20590
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20590
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Wang, Qingbin & Fuller, Frank & Hayes, Dermot & Halbrendt, Catherine, 1998. "Chinese Consumer Demand for Animal Products and Implications for U.S. Pork and Poultry Exports," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 127-140, July.
    3. Thomas W. Hertel & Zhi Wang & Wusheng Yu, 1998. "Understanding the Determinants of Structural Change in World Food Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1051-1061.
    4. Ball, V Eldon, et al, 1997. "Aggregation Methods for Intercountry Comparisons of Prices and Real Values in Agriculture: A Review and Synthesis," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 24(2), pages 183-206.
    5. John A.L. Cranfield & Thomas W. Hertel & James S. Eales & Paul V. Preckel, 1998. "Changes in the Structure of Global Food Demand," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1042-1050.
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    7. Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Steinfeld, Henning & Ehui, Simeon K. & Courbois, Claude, 1999. "Livestock to 2020: the next food revolution," 2020 vision briefs 61, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. K.P. Kalirajan & M.B. Obwona & S. Zhao, 1996. "A Decomposition of Total Factor Productivity Growth: The Case of Chinese Agricultural Growth before and after Reforms," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 331-338.
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    10. Jikun Huang, 2000. "Responsiveness, Flexibility, and Market Liberalization in China's Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1133-1139.
    11. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fontagné, Lionel & Fouré, Jean, 2013. "Opening a Pandora's box: Modeling world trade patterns at the 2035 horizon," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2013-09, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    2. Allan N. Rae & Hengyun Ma & Jikun Huang & Scott Rozelle, 2006. "Livestock in China: Commodity-Specific Total Factor Productivity Decomposition Using New Panel Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(3), pages 680-695.
    3. Masayoshi Homna & Ray Trewin & Jennifer Amyx & Allan Rae, 2000. "A Way Forward for Japanese Agriculture," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 300, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Rae, Allan N., 2001. "Trade In Livestock Products And The Wto Millenium Round: Projections To 2005 And Problems With Trq'S," International Trade in Livestock Products Symposium, January 18-19, 2001, Auckland, New Zealand 14564, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.

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    International Relations/Trade;

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