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Impact Of Productivity Growth In Crops And Livestock On World Food Trade Patterns

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  • Ludena, Carlos E.

Abstract

World food trade patterns have changed in the last 40 years with the share of world trade comprised of bulk commodities falling, and the share of world food trade comprised of processed commodities rising. These changes have been driven by a combination of supply and demand forces. On the demand side, world demand for livestock products and more highly processed food products has been rising more rapidly than that for bulk products. This increasing demand can either be met from domestic production or from foreign production in the latter case resulting in increased international trade. The extent to which the increased demand can be met from domestic production depends importantly on the rate of productivity growth in the various components of the farm and food sector. This is why the relative rates of productivity growth in crops and livestock is also believed to be an important factor in determining the changing composition of trade. This study seeks to understand to what extent productivity growth in crops and livestock has affected world food trade patterns. We do so by first estimating total factor productivity growth in crops and livestock over the past four decades. The results show that productivity growth in crops has been larger in developed countries. However, non-ruminant productivity growth in developing countries has been larger. By incorporating these estimates into a back-casting exercise with the GTAP general equilibrium model, we hope to understand how these differential productivity growth rates have influenced the composition of world food trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Ludena, Carlos E., 2004. "Impact Of Productivity Growth In Crops And Livestock On World Food Trade Patterns," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20366, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea04:20366
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.20366
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    File URL: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/20366/files/sp04lu04.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Nin, Alejandro & Arndt, Channing & Preckel, Paul V., 2003. "Is agricultural productivity in developing countries really shrinking? New evidence using a modified nonparametric approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 395-415, August.
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    5. Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Steinfeld, Henning & Ehui, Simeon K. & Courbois, Claude, 1999. "Livestock to 2020: the next food revolution," 2020 vision briefs 61, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Nin, Alejandro & Hertel, Thomas W. & Foster, Kenneth & Rae, Allan, 2004. "Productivity growth, catching-up and uncertainty in China's meat trade," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 1-16, July.
    7. Chambers, Robert G. & Chung, Yangho & Fare, Rolf, 1996. "Benefit and Distance Functions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 407-419, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ma, Hengyun & Rae, Allan N., 2004. "Hog Production In China: Technological Bias And Factor Demand," China Agriculture Project Working Papers 23688, Massey University, Centre for Applied Economics and Policy Studies.

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    Keywords

    International Relations/Trade;

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