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Predicting the Diffusion of Improved Pastures in Uruguay

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  • Lovell S. Jarvis

Abstract

Research suggests the logistic curve is the characteristic diffusion path for new technologies. Econometric analysis of fertilized grass-legume pastures in Uruguay indicated that their diffusion during the first years following introduction also followed a logistic path. Some departure from a simple logistic shape was explained by including beef and fertilizer prices within the diffusion framework. Both the rate and limit of diffusion were positively related to changes in the technology's profitability, but the estimated price elasticity of each was low. Extrapolation predicted that a ceiling equal to 12% of Uruguayan pasture area would be reached in 1980.

Suggested Citation

  • Lovell S. Jarvis, 1981. "Predicting the Diffusion of Improved Pastures in Uruguay," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(3), pages 495-502.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:63:y:1981:i:3:p:495-502.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1240540
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    1. Nin, Alejandro & Hertel, Thomas W. & Foster, Kenneth & Rae, Allan, 2004. "Productivity growth, catching-up and uncertainty in China's meat trade," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Hertel, Thomas & Ludena, Carlos E. & Golub, Alla, 2006. "Economic Growth, Technological Change, and Patterns of Food and Agricultural Trade in Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 86, Asian Development Bank.
    3. Marie-Estelle Binet & Lionel Richefort, 2011. "Diffusion of irrigation technologies: the role of mimicking behaviour and public incentives," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 43-48.
    4. Blackman, Allen, 1999. "The Economics of Technology Diffusion: Implications for Climate Policy in Developing Countries," Discussion Papers 10574, Resources for the Future.
    5. Zepeda, Lydia, 1989. "An Ex Ante Adoption Model Of Bovine Somatotropin By California Milk Producers," 1989 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 2, Baton Rouge, Louisiana 270659, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Ludena, Carlos E. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Foster, Kenneth A. & Nin Pratt, Alejandro, 2006. "Productivity Growth and Convergence in Crop, Ruminant and Non-Ruminant Production: Measurement and Forecasts," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25392, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Lopez Barrera, Emiliano & Hertel, Thomas, 2021. "Global food waste across the income spectrum: Implications for food prices, production and resource use," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    8. Wilson, Paul N. & Anderson, David P., 1990. "Strategic Investments in Agriculture: How Do We Measure Risk?," 1990 Quantifying Long Run Agricultural Risks and Evaluating Farmer Responses to Risk Meeting, January 28-31, 1990, Sanibel Island, Florida 271542, Regional Research Projects > S-232: Quantifying Long Run Agricultural Risks and Evaluating Farmer Responses to Risk.
    9. H. G. P. Jansen, 1992. "Inter‐Regional Variation In The Speed Of Adoption Of Modern Cereal Cultivars In India," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 88-95, January.
    10. Lionel Richefort & Jean-Louis Fusillier, 2010. "Imitation, rationalité et adoption de technologies d'irrigation améliorées à l'île de la Réunion," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(2), pages 59-73.
    11. Nin Pratt, Alejandro & Hertel, Thomas W. & Foster, Kenneth A. & Rae, Allan N., 2001. "Productivity Growth And Catching-Up: Implications For China'S Trade In Livestock Products," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20590, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    12. Wallace, M., 1985. "Long-Term Projections of Wood-Based Panel Consumption in Australia," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 53(03), pages 1-11, December.
    13. Ekboir, Javier M. & Jarvis, Lovell S. & Rey, Carlos, 1998. "Investment Effects Of Endogenous And Exogenous Depreciation: Improved Pastures In Uruguay," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20934, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    14. Anchal Arora & Sangeeta Bansal, "undated". "Diffusion of Bt Cotton in India: Impact of Seed Prices and Technological Development," Centre for International Trade and Development, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi Discussion Papers 11-01, Centre for International Trade and Development, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India.
    15. Caram, Nicolas & Soca, Pablo & Sollenberger, Lynn E. & Baethgen, Walter & Wallau, Marcelo O. & Mailhos, María E., 2023. "Studying beef production evolution to plan for ecological intensification of grazing ecosystems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    16. Trajtenberg, Manuel & Yitzhaki, Shlomo, 1989. "The Diffusion of Innovations: A Methodological Reappraisal," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(1), pages 35-47, January.
    17. Neupane, Ramji P. & Sharma, Khem R. & Thapa, Gopal B., 2002. "Adoption of agroforestry in the hills of Nepal: a logistic regression analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 177-196, June.
    18. Zepeda, Lydia, 1990. "Predicting Bovine Somatotropin Use By California Dairy Farmers," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-8, July.

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