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Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ

  • Fan, Shenggen
  • Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C.

This article analyses the macroeconomic assumptions, demand and supply parameters, and structures of the models used in projecting China's future food supply, demand and trade. Projections vary greatly, from China being self- sufficient in grain to being a net importer of 369 million metric tons of grain in 2030. The differences stem mainly from the approaches chosen to model China's grain production and, in particular, the combined effects of land decline and yield growth. The article also points out improvements needed in future work on modelling China's grain economy, which include accounting for the links between agriculture and other sectors, technical change in the livestock industry and infra- structure constraints on grain imports.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118013
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Article provided by Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society in its journal Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 41 (1997)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:aareaj:118013
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  1. Anderson, Kym & Dimaranan, Betina & Hertel, Thomas W & Martin, Will, 1996. "Asia-Pacific Food Markets and Trade in 2005: A Global, Economy-wide Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 1474, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Mitchell,Donald O. & Ingco,Merlinda D. & Duncan,Ronald C., 1997. "The World Food Outlook," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521580106.
  3. Johnson, D. Gale, 1994. "Does China have a grain problem?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 1-14.
  4. Babcock, Bruce A. & Beghin, John C. & Mohanty, Samarendu & Fuller, Frank H. & Chaudhary, Sudhir & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Kovarik, Karen & Hart, Chad E. & Fang, Cheng & Kaus, Phillip J. & Naik, Manta & , 1999. "FAPRI 1999 World Agricultural Outlook," Staff Reports 32050, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
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