Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ
This article analyses the macroeconomic assumptions, demand and supply parameters, and structures of the models used in projecting China's future food supply, demand and trade. Projections vary greatly, from China being self- sufficient in grain to being a net importer of 369 million metric tons of grain in 2030. The differences stem mainly from the approaches chosen to model China's grain production and, in particular, the combined effects of land decline and yield growth. The article also points out improvements needed in future work on modelling China's grain economy, which include accounting for the links between agriculture and other sectors, technical change in the livestock industry and infra- structure constraints on grain imports.
Volume (Year): 41 (1997)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: AARES Central Office Manager, Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU, Canberra ACT 0200|
Phone: 0409 032 338
Web page: http://www.aares.info
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Johnson, D. Gale, 1994. "Does China have a grain problem?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 1-14.
- Anderson, Kym & Dimaranan, Betina & Hertel, Thomas W & Martin, Will, 1996.
"Asia-Pacific Food Markets and Trade in 2005: A Global, Economy-wide Perspective,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1474, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Anderson, Kym & Dimaranan, Betina V. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Martin, William J., 1997. "Asia-Pacific food markets and trade in 2005: a global, economy-wide perspective," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(1), March.
- Babcock, Bruce A. & Beghin, John C. & Mohanty, Samarendu & Fuller, Frank H. & Chaudhary, Sudhir & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Kovarik, Karen & Hart, Chad E. & Fang, Cheng & Kaus, Phillip J. & Naik, Manta & , 1999. "FAPRI 1999 World Agricultural Outlook," Staff Reports 32050, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aareaj:118013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.