IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/aareaj/118013.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ

Author

Listed:
  • Fan, Shenggen
  • Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C.

Abstract

This article analyses the macroeconomic assumptions, demand and supply parameters, and structures of the models used in projecting China's future food supply, demand and trade. Projections vary greatly, from China being self- sufficient in grain to being a net importer of 369 million metric tons of grain in 2030. The differences stem mainly from the approaches chosen to model China's grain production and, in particular, the combined effects of land decline and yield growth. The article also points out improvements needed in future work on modelling China's grain economy, which include accounting for the links between agriculture and other sectors, technical change in the livestock industry and infra- structure constraints on grain imports.

Suggested Citation

  • Fan, Shenggen & Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C., 1997. "Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(2), June.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aareaj:118013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118013
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yang, Yongzheng & Tyers, Rodney, 1989. "The economic costs of food self-sufficiency in China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 237-253, February.
    2. Anderson, Kym & Dimaranan, Betina V. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Martin, William J., 1997. "Asia-Pacific food markets and trade in 2005: a global, economy-wide perspective," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(1), March.
    3. Babcock, Bruce A. & Beghin, John C. & Mohanty, Samarendu & Fuller, Frank H. & Chaudhary, Sudhir & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Kovarik, Karen & Hart, Chad E. & Fang, Cheng & Kaus, Phillip J. & Naik, Manta & , 1999. "FAPRI 1999 World Agricultural Outlook," Staff Reports 32050, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
    4. Johnson, D. Gale, 1994. "Does China have a grain problem?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 1-14.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhu, Jing & Zhu, J., 2003. "Public Investment And China'S Grain Production Competitiveness Under Wto," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25825, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Delgado, Christopher L. & Courbois, Claude & Rosegrant, Mark W., 1998. "Global food demand and the contribution of livestock as we enter the new millennium," MTID discussion papers 21, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Chen, Kai & Brown, Colin, 2001. "Addressing shortcomings in the Household Responsibility System: Empirical analysis of the Two-Farmland System in Shandong Province," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 280-292.
    4. Wang, Xiaobing & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott, 2017. "Off-farm employment and agricultural specialization in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 155-165.
    5. Felloni, Fabrizio & Gilbert, John & Wahl, Thomas I. & Wandschneider, Philip R., 2000. "Self-Sufficiency And Productivity In Chinese Agriculture: Implications For China'S Wto Accession," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21747, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Xiaobo Zhang & Timothy Mount & Richard Boisvert, 2004. "Industrialization, urbanization and land use in China," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 207-224.
    7. Ma, Hengyun & Rae, Allan N. & Huang, Jikun, 2004. "Livestock Productivity In China: Data Revision And Total Factor Productivity Decomposition," China Agriculture Project Working Papers 23691, Massey University, Centre for Applied Economics and Policy Studies.
    8. Ito, Junichi & Ni, Jing, 2013. "Capital deepening, land use policy, and self-sufficiency in China's grain sector," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 95-107.
    9. Ryan, James G., 2003. "Evaluating the impact of agricultural projection modeling using the "IMPACT” framework," Impact assessments 17, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. Cao, Li†Juan & Tian, Wei†Ming & Wang, Ji†Min & Malcolm, Bill & Liu, Hong†Bo & Zhou, Zhang†Yue, 2013. "Recent Food Consumption Trends in China and Trade," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Melbourne School of Land and Environment, vol. 21.
    11. Tianxiang Li & Tomas Baležentis & Lijuan Cao & Jing Zhu & Irena Kriščiukaitienė & Rasa Melnikienė, 2016. "Are the Changes in China’s Grain Production Sustainable: Extensive and Intensive Development by the LMDI Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(12), pages 1-24, November.
    12. Xuqi Chen & Zhifeng Gao & Lisa House & Jiaoju Ge & Chengfeng Zong & Fred Gmitter, 2016. "Opportunities for Western Food Products in China: The Case of Orange Juice Demand," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 343-362, July.
    13. Wang, Jinxia & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott & Zhang, Lijuan, 2008. "Can China continue feeding itself ? the impact of climate change on agriculture," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4470, The World Bank.
    14. Curtis, Kynda R. & McCluskey, Jill J. & Wahl, Thomas I., 2007. "Consumer preferences for western-style convenience foods in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-14.
    15. Khan, Shahbaz & Hanjra, Munir A. & Mu, Jianxin, 2009. "Water management and crop production for food security in China: A review," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 349-360, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Food Security and Poverty;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aareaj:118013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/aaresea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.