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Asia-Pacific food markets and trade in 2005: a global, economy-wide perspective

  • Anderson, Kym
  • Dimaranan, Betina V.
  • Hertel, Thomas W.
  • Martin, William J.

Rapid industrialization in East Asia, particularly China, is raising questions about who will feed the region in the next century and how Asia will be able to pay for its food imports. The paper ®rst reviews existing food sector projections and then takes an economy-wide perspective using projections to 2005, based on the global CGE model known as GTAP. After showing the impact of implementing the Uruguay Round, the paper explores several alternative scenarios. A slowdown in farm productivity growth is shown to be costly to the world economy, as is slower economic growth in China. Failure to honour Uruguay Round obligations to open textile and clothing markets in OECD countries would reduce East Asia's industrialization and thereby slow its net imports of food. On the other hand, the trade reform that is likely to accompany China's (and hence Taiwan's) member- ship of the World Trade Organization (WTO) adds 30 per cent to estimated global gains from the Uruguay Round. Their WTO accession is projected to boost exports of manufactures and strengthen food import demand by not only China but also its densely populated neighbours with whom it trades intensively.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118006
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Article provided by Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society in its journal Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 41 (1997)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:aareaj:118006
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  1. Seale, James & Regmi, Anita & Bernstein, Jason, 2003. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns," Technical Bulletins 184321, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  2. Lipsey, Robert E., 1994. "Quality change and other influences on measures of export prices of manufactured goods," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1348, The World Bank.
  3. Irene Trela & John Whalley, 1991. "Internal Quota Allocation Schemes and the Costs of the MFA," NBER Working Papers 3627, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Anderson, Kym & Dimaranan, Betina & Hertel, Thomas W & Martin, Will, 1997. "Economic Growth and Policy Reform in the APEC Region: Trade and Welfare Implications by 2005," CEPR Discussion Papers 1605, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521351058 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521589840 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Anderson, Kym & Peng, Chao Yang, 1998. "Feeding and fueling China in the 21st century," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1413-1429, August.
  8. Jefferson, Gary H. & Rawski, Thomas G. & Zheng, Yuxin, 1996. "Chinese Industrial Productivity: Trends, Measurement Issues, and Recent Developments," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 146-180, October.
  9. Ahuja, Vinod & Filmer, Deon, 1995. "Educational attainments in developing countries : new estimates and projections disaggregated by gender," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1489, The World Bank.
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