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Emerging Economies, Productivity Growth, and Trade with Resource-Rich Economies by 2030

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  • Anderson, Kym
  • Strutt, Anna

Abstract

Rapid economic growth in some emerging economies in recent decades has significantly increased their global economic importance. If this rapid growth continues and is strongest in resource-poor Asian economies, the growth in global demand for imports of primary products also will continue, to the on-going benefit of natural resource-rich countries. This paper explores how global production, consumption and trade patterns might change over the next two decades in the course of economic development and structural changes under various scenarios. We employ the GTAP model and Version 8.1 of the GTAP database with a base year of 2007, along with supplementary data from a range of sources, to support projections of the global economy to 2030. We first project a baseline assuming trade-related policies do not change in each region but that factor endowments and real GDP grow at exogenously estimated rates. That baseline is compared with two alternative scenarios: one in which the growth rates of China and India are lower by one-quarter, and the other in which this slowdown in emerging economies leads to slower productivity growth in the primary sectors of all countries. Throughout the results, implications are drawn out for natural resource-abundant economies, including Australia and New Zealand.

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  • Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2013. "Emerging Economies, Productivity Growth, and Trade with Resource-Rich Economies by 2030," CEPR Discussion Papers 9779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9779
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2016. "Impacts of Emerging Asia on African and Latin American Trade: Projections to 2030," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 172-194, February.
    2. repec:eee:asieco:v:55:y:2018:i:c:p:42-57 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Piyasiri Wickramasekara, 2015. "Mainstreaming migration in development agendas: assessment of South Asian countries," Departmental Working Papers 2015-02, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    4. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2015. "Implications for Indonesia of Asia's Rise in the Global Economy," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(1), pages 69-94, April.
    5. Hom M Pant, 2015. "A generic approach to investment modelling in recursive dynamic CGE models," Departmental Working Papers 2015-01, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    6. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2014. "Growth in Densely Populated Asia: Implications for Primary Product Exporters," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 112-126, January.
    7. Donatella Baiardi & Carluccio Bianchi & Eleonora Lorenzini, 2014. "Food competition in world markets: Some evidence from a panel data analysis of top exporting countries," DEM Working Papers Series 083, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    8. Marcel Schroder, 2015. "Valuation effects, risk sharing, and consumption smoothing," Departmental Working Papers 2015-03, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    9. Marcel Schroder, 2015. "Mercantilism and China’s hunger for international reserves," Departmental Working Papers 2015-04, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asian economic growth and structural change; booming sector economics; food security; global economy-wide model projections;

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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