The Changing Geography of World Trade: Projections to 2030

Asia‟s rapid economic growth has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade, and boosting South-South trade. This paper examines how trade patterns are likely to change in the course of economic growth and structural changes in Asia and the rest of the world over the next two decades. It does so by projecting a core baseline for the world economy from 2004 to 2030 and comparing it with alternative scenarios for 2030, including slower economic growth rates in the „North‟, slower productivity growth in primary sectors, and various trade policy reforms in Developing Asia, without and with policy reforms also in the „North‟ and in South-South trade. Projected impacts on international trade patterns, including the continuing rise in significance of Developing Asia, changing sectoral shares, „openness‟ to trade, and potential welfare gains from reforms are highlighted, in addition to effects on bilateral trade patterns as summarized by intra-and extra-regional trade intensity and propensity indexes. The paper concludes with implications for regional and multilateral trade policy.