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The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030


  • Anderson, Kym
  • Strutt, Anna


Rapid economic growth in Asia (and some other emerging economies) has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade, and boosting South–South trade. This paper examines how trade patterns are likely to change in the course of continuing economic growth and structural changes in Asia and the rest of the world over the next two decades. It does so by projecting a core baseline for the world economy from 2004 to 2030 and comparing it with alternative scenarios, including slower economic growth rates in the ‘North’, slower productivity growth in primary sectors, and prospective trade policy reforms in Developing Asia, without and with policy reforms also in the ‘North’ and in South–South trade. Projected impacts on international trade patterns, sectoral shares of GDP, ‘openness’ to trade, and potential welfare gains from reforms are highlighted, in addition to effects on bilateral trade patterns as summarized by intra- and extra-regional trade intensity and propensity indexes. The paper concludes with implications for regional and multilateral trade policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 303-323.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:23:y:2012:i:4:p:303-323 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2012.02.001

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    Cited by:

    1. Kym Anderson, 2013. "Agricultural price distortions: trends and volatility, past, and prospective," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(s1), pages 163-171, November.
    2. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-01299851 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Bagaynikov, Mikhail, 2014. "Land aspect in the development of individual agricultural farms of the Baikal region," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, pages 195-207.
    4. Fontagné, Lionel & Fouré, Jean, 2013. "Opening a Pandora's box: Modeling world trade patterns at the 2035 horizon," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2013-09, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    5. Kym Anderson & Hans Grinsted Jensen & Signe Nelgen & Anna Strutt, 2016. "What is the Appropriate Counterfactual When Estimating Effects of Multilateral Trade Policy Reform?," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 764-778, September.
    6. Anderson, Kym & Wittwer, Glyn, 2015. "Asia's evolving role in global wine markets," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-14.

    More about this item


    Global economy-wide model projections; Asian economic growth; South–South trade; Intra- and extra-regional trade intensity and propensity indexes;

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade


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