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Impacts of Emerging Asia on African and Latin American Trade: Projections to 2030

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  • Kym Anderson
  • Anna Strutt

Abstract

Rapid growth in Asia’s emerging economies has boosted export earnings of resource-rich economies over the past decade. Whether or not those high growth rates continue, how will structural changes in Asia alter the relative importance of their imports of primary products? This paper projects production and trade patterns of Africa and Latin America to 2030 under various growth and policy scenarios in Asia, using the GTAP model of the global economy. We compare a projection assuming relatively conservative economic growth in China and India with a projection in which those economies continue to grow rapidly (albeit slower than in the previous decade). We then compare our conservative growth baseline with two alternative scenarios: one assuming Africa and Latin America choose to invest more in public agricultural R&D to take advantage of Asian import growth; the other assuming China and India dampen that import growth by restricting their imports of key foodgrains (following the historical pattern of economies such as Japan and Korea). The final section summarizes the results and draws out policy implications for Latin America and Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2015. "Impacts of Emerging Asia on African and Latin American Trade: Projections to 2030," Departmental Working Papers 2015-09, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2015-09
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    Cited by:

    1. Kym Anderson & Sundar Ponnusamy, 2019. "Structural Transformation to Manufacturing and Services: What Role for Trade?," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 36(2), pages 32-71, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global economy-wide model projections; Asian economic growth and structural change; booming sector economics; food security;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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