IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Agriculture and Food Security in Asia by 2030


  • Anderson, Kym

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Strutt, Anna

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)


Rapid trade-led economic growth in emerging Asia has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade but also altering the commodity composition of trade by Asia and other regions. What began with Japan in the 1950s and the Republic of Korea and Taipei,China from the late 1960s has spread to the much more populous ASEAN region, the People’s Republic of China, and India. This paper examines how that growth and associated structural changes are altering agricultural markets in particular and thereby food security.

Suggested Citation

  • Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Agriculture and Food Security in Asia by 2030," ADBI Working Papers 368, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0368

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Sandri, Damiano & Valenzuela, Ernesto & Anderson, Kym, 2007. "Economic And Trade Indicators For Asia, 1960 To 2004," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 48435, World Bank.
    2. Chappuis, Thomas & Terrie Walmsley, 2011. "Projections for World CGE Model Baselines," GTAP Research Memoranda 3728, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    3. Thomas W. Hertel & Jayson Beckman, 2011. "Commodity Price Volatility in the Biofuel Era: An Examination of the Linkage between Energy and Agricultural Markets," NBER Chapters,in: The Intended and Unintended Effects of U.S. Agricultural and Biotechnology Policies, pages 189-221 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2011. "Asia's Changing Role in World Trade: Prospects for South - South Trade Growth to 2030," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 264, Asian Development Bank.
    5. James R. Markusen, 2004. "Multinational Firms and the Theory of International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262633078, January.
    6. Philippa Dee & Kevin Hanslow & Tiem Phamduc, 2003. "Measuring the Cost of Barriers to Trade in Services," NBER Chapters,in: Trade in Services in the Asia Pacific Region, NBER East Asia Seminar on Economics (EASE), Volume 11, pages 11-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2012. "Export Restrictions and Price Insulation During Commodity Price Booms," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(2), pages 422-427.
    8. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, William J., 2010. "Promoting global agricultural growth and poverty reduction," 114th Seminar, April 15-16, 2010, Berlin, Germany 61098, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Martin, Will & Mitra, Devashish, 1999. "Productivity growth and convergence in agriculture and manufacturing," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2171, The World Bank.
    10. Marc J. Melitz & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, 2008. "Market Size, Trade, and Productivity," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(1), pages 295-316.
    11. Anderson, Kym & Kurzweil, Marianne & Martin, Will & Sandri, Damiano & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2008. "Measuring distortions to agricultural incentives, revisited," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(04), pages 675-704, October.
    12. Anderson, Kym & Norheim, Hege, 1993. "Is World Trade Becoming More Regionalized?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 91-109, June.
    13. Anderson, Kym & Dimaranan, Betina & Hertel, Thomas W & Martin, Will, 1997. "Economic Growth and Policy Reform in the APEC Region: Trade and Welfare Implications by 2005," CEPR Discussion Papers 1605, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Paul Krugman, 2009. "The Increasing Returns Revolution in Trade and Geography," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 561-571, June.
    15. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2010. "The World Economy in 2050: a Tentative Picture," Working Papers 2010-27, CEPII research center.
    16. Joseph Francois & Bernard Hoekman, 2010. "Services Trade and Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 642-692, September.
    17. Richard E. Baldwin & Toshihiro Okubo, 2014. "International Trade, Offshoring and Heterogeneous Firms," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 59-72, February.
    18. Anderson, Kym & Nelgen, Signe, 2012. "Trade Barrier Volatility and Agricultural Price Stabilization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 36-48.
    19. Kemal Dervis & Jaime de Melo & Sherman Robinson, 2015. "A General Equilibrium Analysis Of Foreign Exchange Shortages In A Developing Economy," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Modeling Developing Countries' Policies in General Equilibrium, chapter 4, pages 71-86 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. Kiyota, Kozo & Matsuura, Toshiyuki & Urata, Shujiro & Wei, Yuhong, 2008. "Reconsidering the Backward Vertical Linkages of Foreign Affiliates: Evidence from Japanese Multinationals," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1398-1414, August.
    21. Konan, Denise Eby & Maskus, Keith E., 2006. "Quantifying the impact of services liberalization in a developing country," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 142-162, October.
    22. Robert C. Feenstra, 1998. "Integration of Trade and Disintegration of Production in the Global Economy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 31-50, Fall.
    23. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Palazzo, Amanda & Gray, Ian & Ingersoll, Christina & Robertson, Richard & Tokgoz, Simla & Zhu, Tingju & Sulser, Timothy B. & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & , 2010. "Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: Scenarios, results, policy options," Research reports Gerald C. Nelson, et al., International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    24. Sandri, Damiano & Valenzuela, Ernesto & Anderson, Kym, 2007. "Economic And Trade Indicators For Africa, 1960 To 2004," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 48467, World Bank.
    25. James R. Markusen & Anthony J. Venables & Denise Eby Konan & Kevin H. Zhang, 1996. "A Unified Treatment of Horizontal Direct Investment, Vertical Direct Investment, and the Pattern of Trade in Goods and Services," NBER Working Papers 5696, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685.
    27. Hoxha, Indrit & Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Vollrath, Dietrich, 2013. "How big are the gains from international financial integration?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 90-98.
    28. Kym Anderson & Rod Tyers, 1986. "Economic Growth and Market Liberalisation in China: Implications for Agricultural Trade," School of Economics Working Papers 1986-03, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    29. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    30. Govinda R. Timilsina & John C. Beghin & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe & Simon Mevel, 2012. "The impacts of biofuels targets on land‐use change and food supply: A global CGE assessment," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 315-332, May.
    31. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-380, November.
    32. Ludena, Carlos E. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Foster, Kenneth A. & Nin Pratt, Alejandro, 2006. "Productivity Growth and Convergence in Crop, Ruminant and Non-Ruminant Production: Measurement and Forecasts," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25392, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    33. Dani Rodrik, 2011. "The future of economic convergence," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 13-52.
    34. Reardon, Thomas & Barrett, Christopher B. & Berdegué, Julio A. & Swinnen, Johan F.M., 2009. "Agrifood Industry Transformation and Small Farmers in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 1717-1727, November.
    35. Krishna, Pravin & Mitra, Devashish, 1998. "Trade liberalization, market discipline and productivity growth: new evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 447-462, August.
    36. Leamer, Edward E, 1987. "Paths of Development in the Three-Factor, n-Good General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 961-999, October.
    37. Martin S. Feldstein, 2011. "The Role of Currency Realignments in Eliminating the US and China Current Account Imbalances," NBER Working Papers 16674, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Johan F.M. Swinnen & Anneleen Vandeplas, 2010. "Market power and rents in global supply chains," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(s1), pages 109-120, November.
    39. Kym Anderson, 2009. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives : A Global Perspective, 1955-2007," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 9436.
    40. Corden, W M, 1982. "Exchange Rate Policy and the Resources Boom," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 58(160), pages 18-31, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2013. "Estimating Effects of Price-Distorting Policies Using Alternative Distortions Databases," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
    2. Brooks, Douglas & Ferrarini, Benno & Go, Eugenia, 2013. "Bilateral Trade and Food Security," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 367, Asian Development Bank.
    3. Kym Anderson, 2012. "Policy Responses to Changing Perceptions of the Role of Agriculture in Development," Departmental Working Papers 2012-11, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    4. Petri, Peter A. & Zhai, Fan, 2013. "Navigating a Changing World Economy: ASEAN, the People’s Republic of China, and India," ADBI Working Papers 404, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    5. Anderson, Kym & Jha, Shikha & Nelgen, Signe & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Reexamining Policies for Food Security," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 301, Asian Development Bank.

    More about this item


    asia; asean; agricultural markets; agriculture; food security; world trade;

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0368. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ADB Institute) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.