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The World Economy in 2050: a Tentative Picture

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  • Jean Fouré
  • Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
  • Lionel Fontagné

Abstract

We present growth scenarios for 128 countries to 2050, based on a three-factor production function that includes capital, labour and energy. We improve on the literature by accounting for the energy constraint through dynamic modelling of energy productivity, and departing from the assumptions of either a closed economy or full capital mobility by applying a Feldstein-Horioka-type relationship between savings and investment rates. Our results suggest that, accounting for relative price variations, China could account for 28% of the world economy in 2050, which would be much more than the United States (14%), India (12%), the European Union (11%) and Japan (3%). They suggest also that China would overtake the United States around 2025 (2035 at constant relative prices). However, in terms of standards of living, measured through GDP per capita in purchasing power parity, only China would be close to achieving convergence to the US level, and only at the end of the simulation period.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2010. "The World Economy in 2050: a Tentative Picture," Working Papers 2010-27, CEPII research center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-27
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    Cited by:

    1. Ignazio Angeloni & André Sapir, 2011. "The international monetary system is changing: what opportunities and risks for the euro?," Working Papers 632, Bruegel.
    2. Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré, 2013. "Opening a Pandora's Box: Modelling World Trade Patterns at the 2035 Horizon," Working Papers 2013-22, CEPII research center.
    3. Chappuis, Thomas & Terrie Walmsley, 2011. "Projections for World CGE Model Baselines," GTAP Research Memoranda 3728, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    4. Crozet, Matthieu & Trionfetti, Federico, 2013. "Firm-level comparative advantage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 321-328.
    5. Kawase, Reina & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2013. "Reduction targets under three burden-sharing schemes for 50% global GHG reduction toward 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1126-1138.
    6. Ignazio Angeloni & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benjamin Carton & Christophe Destais & Zsolt Darvas & Jean Pisani-Ferry & André Sapir & Shahin Vallée, . "Global currencies for tomorrow: a European perspective," Blueprints, Bruegel, number 592, November.
    7. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2012. "The Great Shift: Macroeconomic projections for the world economy at the 2050 horizon," Working Papers 2012-03, CEPII research center.
    8. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Agriculture and Food Security in Asia by 2030," ADBI Working Papers 368, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    9. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Damien Capelle, 2014. "On the inclusion of the Chinese renminbi in the SDR basket," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 139, pages 133-151.
    10. Åsa Johansson & Yvan Guillemette & Fabrice Murtin & David Turner & Giuseppe Nicoletti & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Guillaume Bousquet & Francesca Spinelli, 2012. "Looking to 2060: Long-Term Global Growth Prospects: A Going for Growth Report," OECD Economic Policy Papers 3, OECD Publishing.
    11. Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné, 2011. "Economic Impact of Potential Outcome of the DDA," Working Papers 2011-23, CEPII research center.
    12. Bedassa Tadesse & Roger White & Elias Shukralla, 2015. "Production Efficiency and the Extensive Margins of U.S. Exporters: An Industry-level Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, pages 941-969.
    13. Rougoor, Ward & van Marrewijk, Charles, 2015. "Demography, Growth, and Global Income Inequality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 220-232.
    14. Åsa Johansson & Yvan Guillemette & Fabrice Murtin & David Turner & Giuseppe Nicoletti & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Philip Bagnoli & Guillaume Bousquet & Francesca Spinelli, 2013. "Long-Term Growth Scenarios," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1000, OECD Publishing.
    15. Matthieu Crozet & Federico Trionfetti, 2011. "Comparative Advantage and Within-Industry Firms Performance," DEGIT Conference Papers c016_019, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    16. Rao, Xudong & Hurley, Terrance M. & Pardey, Philip G., 2012. "Recalibrating the Reported Rates of Return to Food and Agricultural R&D," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124581, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Peter Jarrett, 2012. "The Long-term Outlook for Productivity and Per Capita Income Growth for Canada: A Comparison with Selected G-20 Countries," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 24, pages 85-96, Fall.
    18. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, pages 303-323.
    19. Gros, Daniel & Alcidi, Cinzia, 2014. "The Global Economy in 2030: Trends and Strategies for Europe," CEPS Papers 9142, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    20. Lannoo, Karel, 2013. "Financial Services and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership," CEPS Papers 8616, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    21. Anderson, Kym & Jha, Shikha & Nelgen, Signe & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Reexamining Policies for Food Security," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 301, Asian Development Bank.
    22. Valenzuela, Ernesto & Anderson, Kym, 2011. "Climate change and food security to 2030: a global economy-wide perspective," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 11(1).
    23. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Global food markets by 2030: What roles for farm TFP growth and trade policies?," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Freemantle, Australia 124192, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    24. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Asia’s Growth, the Changing Geography of World Trade, and Food Security: Projections to 2030," CEPR Discussion Papers 8950, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP projections; Long run; Global economy;

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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