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MaGE 3.1: Long-term macroeconomic projections of the World economy

Author

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  • Fontagné, Lionel
  • Perego, Erica
  • Santoni, Gianluca

Abstract

What will the global economy look like in a generation? The answer depends on the multiple forces driving long-term growth (demography, education, diffusion of technical progress, energy costs, investment and saving behaviour, international capital mobility) and requires a comprehensive framework to conceptualize them. We re-estimate the three-factor (capital, energy, labour) MAcro-econometric model of the Global Economy (MaGE), initially developed by Fouré et al. (2013), with a database covering 170 countries using state-of-the-art methods. We thus establish the long-term structural relationships that drive the dynamics of the World economy. The model projections to 2050 illustrate the expected changes in the World economy and their driving forces. In light of the projected volume of energy consumption, making these projections compatible with climate imperatives calls for increased technology sharing at the international level in order to decouple economic growth from energy use.

Suggested Citation

  • Fontagné, Lionel & Perego, Erica & Santoni, Gianluca, 2022. "MaGE 3.1: Long-term macroeconomic projections of the World economy," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 168-189.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inteco:v:172:y:2022:i:c:p:168-189
    DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2022.08.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Bellora, Cecilia & Fontagné, Lionel, 2023. "EU in search of a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    2. Lee, Jong-Wha & Song, Eunbi, 2025. "Demographic change and long-term economic growth path in Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    3. Jing Han & Weilin Zhu & Chaofan Chen, 2023. "Identifying Emissions Reduction Opportunities in International Bilateral Emissions Trading Systems to Achieve China’s Energy Sector NDCs," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-24, January.
    4. Nejati, Mehdi & Shah, Muhammad Ibrahim, 2023. "How does ICT trade shape environmental impacts across the north-south regions? Intra-regional and Inter-regional perspective from dynamic CGE model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PB).
    5. Chen, Zhe-Yi & Zhao, Lu-Tao & Cheng, Lei & Qiu, Rui-Xiang, 2025. "How does China respond to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism? An approach of global trade analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • F64 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Environment

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