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Demographic Change and Long-Term Economic Growth Path in Asia

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  • Jong-Wha Lee
  • Eunbi Song

Abstract

This study analyzes Asia's economic prospects over the next half-century, focusing on demographic changes. To project the GDP and per capita GDP growth rates for the five major Asian countries and the United States (US) until 2070, an endogenous growth model is used where physical and human capital accumulation, technological progress, and substitution between physical capital and labor are important determinants of the long-term growth rate. The simulation results show that while the declining labor force growth and an aging population have a long-term negative impact on economic growth, they will not predetermine the future of Asian economies. Highlighted is the importance of promoting technological innovation as well as investment in physical and human capital to sustain strong growth in Asian economies. China's average annual GDP growth is expected to decline to between 1.5% and 2.4% during 2051–2070, subject to scenarios. China's higher growth trajectory could approach about 85% of the US PPP-adjusted per capita GDP by 2070. India is projected to surpass the US in PPP-adjusted GDP by 2050 and China by 2070.

Suggested Citation

  • Jong-Wha Lee & Eunbi Song, 2023. "Demographic Change and Long-Term Economic Growth Path in Asia," CAMA Working Papers 2023-48, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2023-48
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asia; demographic changes; economic growth; human capital; technological progress;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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