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Macroeconomic Consequences of Global Endogenous Migration: a General Equilibrium Analysis

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  • Vladimir Borgy
  • Xavier Chojnicki
  • Gilles Le Garrec
  • Cyrille Schwellnus

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the consequences of endogenous migration flows over the coming decades in a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy. Such an approach has two major benefits. First, it offers a global perspective on the economic consequences of international migration flows by taking into account effects on both the destination and the origin regions. Second, by allowing migration flows to be related to economic fundamentals, they are determined endogenously in the model. We proceed by estimating the determinants of migration in an econometric model and then endogenizing migration flows by introducing the estimated relationships between demographic and income developments in our world model. We show that (i) migration could have a substantial impact on GDP growth in sending and destination regions; (ii) endogenizing migration induces important changes in the volume and the distribution of migration flows between regions compared to the United Nations projections; (iii) the size of these flows, although substantial, will not be sufficient to counteract the impact of population ageing in the receiving regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Vladimir Borgy & Xavier Chojnicki & Gilles Le Garrec & Cyrille Schwellnus, 2010. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Global Endogenous Migration: a General Equilibrium Analysis," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 97-98, pages 13-39.
    • Handle: RePEc:adr:anecst:y:2010:i:97-98:p:13-39
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmed, S. Amer & Vargas Da Cruz,Marcio Jose & Quillin,Bryce Ramsey & Schellekens,Philip, 2016. "Demographic change and development : a global typology," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7893, The World Bank.
    2. Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Kahanec, Martin & Giulietti, Corrado & Guzi, Martin & Barrett, Alan & Maitre, Bertrand, 2012. "Study on Active Inclusion of Migrants," IZA Research Reports 43, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Duarte Leite & Óscar Afonso & Sandra Silva, 2014. "A tale of two countries: a directed technical change approach," FEP Working Papers 539, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    4. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2012. "The Great Shift : Macroeconomic projections For the World Economy at the 2050 Horizon," Working Papers hal-00962464, HAL.
    5. Wilson, E. J. & Jayanthakumaran, K. & Verma, R., 2012. "Demographics, Labor Mobility, and Productivity," ADBI Working Papers 387, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    6. Mukashov, Askar & Henning, Christian H. C. A. & Robertson, Richard & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2021. "The role of Global Climate Change in structural transformation of Sub-Saharan Africa: Case study of Senegal," Kiel Working Papers 2187, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2010. "The World Economy in 2050: a Tentative Picture," Working Papers 2010-27, CEPII research center.
    8. Joan Muysken & Thomas Ziesemer, 2014. "The Effect of Immigration on Economic Growth in an Ageing Economy," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 35-63.
    9. Ahmed, S. Amer & Go,Delfin Sia & Willenbockel,Dirk Andreas, 2016. "Global migration revisited : short-term pains, long-term gains, and the potential of south-south migration," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7628, The World Bank.
    10. Marcus H. Böhme & Sarah Kups, 2017. "The economic effects of labour immigration in developing countries: A literature review," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 335, OECD Publishing.
    11. Leite, Duarte N. & Afonso, Óscar & Silva, Sandra T., 2019. "A tale of two countries: Directed technical change, trade and migratory movements," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 173-194.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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