IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper

Demographic Trends and International Capital Flows in an Integrated World

  • Luca Marchiori

    ()

    (CREA, University of Luxembourg)

This paper examines the impact of projected demographic trends on international capital flows. The analysis builds upon a ten-region overlapping generations’model of the world economy where capital is mobile across regions. Results show that, over the first half of the century, emerging regions will finance the demand of capital coming from the developed world where population aging is relatively advanced. In particular, the findings suggest that in the coming decades China will be the world’s main creditor region. However, in the second half of the century, India will take over this leading position because of the predicted decline in the Chinese labor force. An additional analysis demonstrates that the economic consequences of demographic changes depend on the degree of capital market integration between regions.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://wwwfr.uni.lu/content/download/35522/427398/file/2011-05%20-%20Demographic%20trends%20and%20international%20capital%20flows%20in%20an%20integrated%20world.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg in its series CREA Discussion Paper Series with number 11-05.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:luc:wpaper:11-05
Contact details of provider: Postal:
162a avenue de la Faïencerie, L-1511 Luxembourg

Phone: (+352) 46 66 44
Fax: (+352) 46 66 44 ext 633
Web page: http://wwwen.uni.lu/research/fdef/crea
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2008. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 347-368, May.
  2. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2003. "Unbundling Institutions," NBER Working Papers 9934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May.
  4. Jérôme Vandenbussche & Philippe Aghion & Costas Meghir, 2004. "Growth, distance to frontier and composition of human capital," IFS Working Papers W04/31, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  5. Martin Floden & David Domeij, 2004. "Population Aging and International Capital Flows," 2004 Meeting Papers 490, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Chojnicki, Xavier & Docquier, Frédéric, 2004. "Fiscal Policy and Educational Attainment in the United States – A Generational Accounting Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 1040, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. Axel Boersch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2005. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," NBER Working Papers 11850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Daniel Cohen & Marcelo Soto, 2001. "Growth and Human Capital: Good Data, Good Results," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 179, OECD Publishing.
  9. BOUZAHZAH, Mohamed & DE LA CROIX, David & DOCQUIER, Frédéric, . "Policy reforms and growth in computable OLG economies," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1669, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  10. Robalino, David & Whitehouse, Edward & Mataoanu, Anca & Musalem, Alberto & Sherwood, Elisabeth & Sluchynsky, Oleksiy, 2005. "Pensions in the Middle East and North Africa: time for change," MPRA Paper 10448, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Robert Rowthorn, 2008. "The fiscal impact of immigration on the advanced economies," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 561-581, Autumn.
  12. Georges Casamatta & Helmuth Cremer & Pierre Pestieau, 2000. "The Political Economy of Social Security," CESifo Working Paper Series 259, CESifo Group Munich.
  13. Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2006. "On the consequences of demographic change for rates of returns to capital, and the distribution of wealth and welfare," CFS Working Paper Series 2006/18, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  14. Michel Juillard & Tarik Ocaktan, 2008. "Méthodes de simulation des modèles stochastiques d'équilibre général," Post-Print hal-00813425, HAL.
  15. Michel Aglietta & Jean Chateau & Jacky Fayolle & Michel Juillard & Jacques Le Cacheux & Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé, 2007. "Pension reforms in Europe: An investigation with a computable OLG world model," Post-Print halshs-00754230, HAL.
  16. Palacios, Robert J., 1996. "Averting the old-age crisis : technical annex," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1572, The World Bank.
  17. Prescott, Edward C, 1998. "Needed: A Theory of Total Factor Productivity," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 525-51, August.
  18. Alan B. Krueger & Mikael Lindahl, 2000. "Education for Growth: Why and For Whom?," NBER Working Papers 7591, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Zhu, Susan Chun, 2005. "Can product cycles explain skill upgrading?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 131-155, May.
  20. Attanasio, Orazio & Kitao, Sagiri & Violante, Giovanni L., 2007. "Global demographic trends and social security reform," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 144-198, January.
  21. Juillard, Michel, 1996. "Dynare : a program for the resolution and simulation of dynamic models with forward variables through the use of a relaxation algorithm," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9602, CEPREMAP.
  22. James Feyrer, 2007. "Demographics and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 100-109, February.
  23. Higgins, Matthew, 1998. "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 343-69, May.
  24. Boucekkine, Raouf, 1995. "An alternative methodology for solving nonlinear forward-looking models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 711-734, May.
  25. Kogel, Tomas, 2005. "Youth dependency and total factor productivity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 147-173, February.
  26. Jérôme Vandenbussche & Philippe Aghion & Costas Meghir, 2006. "Growth, distance to frontier and composition of human capital," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 97-127, June.
  27. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
  28. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
  29. Michael Feroli, 2003. "Capital flows among the G-7 nations: a demographic perspective," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  30. de la Croix, David & Docquier, Frédéric, 2003. "Diverging Patterns of Education Premium and School Attendance in France and the US: A Walrasian View," IZA Discussion Papers 846, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  31. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Benjamin Page & Joan Potter & John Sturrock, 2000. "Generational Accounts for the United States: An Update: Technical Paper 2000-1," Working Papers 13339, Congressional Budget Office.
  32. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
  33. Anne Gauthier, 2007. "The impact of family policies on fertility in industrialized countries: a review of the literature," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 323-346, June.
  34. DE LA CROIX, David & DOCQUIER, Frédéric & LIEGEOIS, Philippe, . "Income growth in the 21st century: Forecasts with an overlapping generations model," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1989, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  35. Robin Brooks, 2003. "Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(2), pages 3.
  36. Gerda R. Neyer, 2006. "Family policies and fertility in Europe: fertility policies at the intersection of gender policies, employment policies and care policies," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-010, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  37. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others?," NBER Working Papers 6564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. DE LA CROIX, David & DOCQUIER, Frédéric, . "School attendance and skill premiums in France and the US: a general equilibrium approach," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1998, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:luc:wpaper:11-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Elisa Ferreira)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.