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Asymmetric demographic pressure in South-Mediterranean versus North-Mediterranean economies and its impact on international gross capital flows

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  • Peeters, Marga

Abstract

According to the life-cycle theory, countries with high and rising youth ratios or high and rising old-age ratios tend to have low savings relative to investment, which depresses their capital outflows. This paper puts life-cycle theory to the test and studies the impact of demographic change on international capital flows in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and the Southern European countries Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal (GISP). These two regions are asymmetric in that MENA has a young population whereas the population of GISP has been ageing rapidly. Moreover, MENA has a lower standard of living an is a much more closed economy, which may effect the ability to save and its impact on cross-border capital flows. The empirical analyses in this paper cover the period 1980-2011 and partly support the life-cycle theory for these two regions. Youth rates depressed domestic savings significantly in both the MENA and GISP regions, while ageing as well as population growth had a positive impact in the GISP region. Also, domestic savings significantly caused international capital flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Peeters, Marga, 2012. "Asymmetric demographic pressure in South-Mediterranean versus North-Mediterranean economies and its impact on international gross capital flows," MPRA Paper 39635, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39635
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demography; international capital flows; savings; ageing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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