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Demographically based global income forecasts up to the year 2050

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Demographic projections of age structure provide the best information available on long-term future human resources and demand. In current data fairly robust correlations between age structure and GDP and GDP growth have been discovered. In this paper we use these two facts and study the forecasting properties of demographically based models. Extending the forecasts to 2050 suggests that due to fertility decreases poor countries of today will start to catch up with developed economies in which the growth process will stagnate due to the growth of the elderly population. That remains the case whether or not indications of positive longevity effects are taken into account.

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  • Malmberg, Bo & Lindh, Thomas, 2004. "Demographically based global income forecasts up to the year 2050," Arbetsrapport 2004:7, Institute for Futures Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:ifswps:2004_007
    Note: ISSN 1652-120X, ISBN 91-89655-56-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Fink, Gunther & Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2007. "Does age structure forecast economic growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 569-585.
    2. David de la CROIX, 2014. "Economic Growth," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2014019, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    3. Malmberg, Bo & Lindh, Thomas & Halvarsson, Max, 2005. "Productivity consequences of workforce ageing - Stagnation or a Horndal effect?," Arbetsrapport 2005:17, Institute for Futures Studies.
    4. Arabsheibani, Gholamreza & Gupta, Prashant & Mishra, Tapas & Parhi, Mamata, 2018. "Wage differential between caste groups: Are younger and older cohorts different?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 10-23.
    5. de la Croix, David & Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 2009. "Demographic change and economic growth in Sweden: 1750-2050," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 132-148, March.
    6. Tapas Mishra & Claude Diebolt, 2010. "Demographic volatility and economic growth: convention and beyond," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 25-45, January.
    7. Emese Kreiszné Hudák & Péter Varga & Viktor Várpalotai, 2015. "The macroeconomic impacts of demographic changes in Hungary in the context of the European Union," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 14(2), pages 89-127.
    8. Jovan Žamac & Daniel Hallberg & Thomas Lindh, 2010. "Low Fertility and Long-Run Growth in an Economy with a Large Public Sector [Fécondité basse et croissance à long terme dans une économie à secteur public très développé]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 183-205, May.
    9. Ma Jiyue & Huang Fei & Bruhn Aaron, 2021. "Estimating China’s Future Life Insurance Market," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-16, January.
    10. Luis Eduardo Sandoval, 2018. "Socio-economics characteristics and spatial persistence of homicides in Colombia, 2000-2010," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 45(1 Year 20), pages 51-77, June.
    11. repec:cbh:journl:v:14:y:2015:i:2:p:89-127 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Ngozi M. Nwakeze, 2014. "The Nexus Between Macroeconomics and Demographics: Implications for Sustainable Development," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 45(2), pages 285-298.
    13. Thomas Lindh & Bo Malmberg, 2009. "European Union economic growth and the age structure of the population," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 159-187, August.
    14. Rougoor, Ward & van Marrewijk, Charles, 2015. "Demography, Growth, and Global Income Inequality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 220-232.
    15. Attard, Juergen, 2019. "Public Debt and Economic Growth nexus: A Dynamic Panel ARDL approach," MPRA Paper 96023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Bokwon Lee & Joowoong Park & Jae-Suk Yang, 2018. "Do older workers really reduce firm productivity?," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 29(4), pages 521-542, December.
    17. Francesco C. Billari & Guido Tabellini, 2010. "Italians Are Late: Does It Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 371-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Ignacio Mauleón, 2021. "Aggregated World Energy Demand Projections: Statistical Assessment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-13, July.
    19. Malmberg Anders & Malmberg Bo & Maskell Peter, 2023. "Population age structure – An underlying driver of national, regional and urban economic development," ZFW – Advances in Economic Geography, De Gruyter, vol. 67(4), pages 217-233, December.
    20. Rashmi Kumari & V. Devadas, 2017. "Modelling the dynamics of economic development driven by agricultural growth in Patna Region, India," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 6(1), pages 1-27, December.
    21. Tapas Mishra & Mamata Parhi & Raúl Fuentes, 2015. "How Interdependent are Cross-Country Happiness Dynamics?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 122(2), pages 491-518, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demographic projections; global income; long-term forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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