IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/ifswps/2004_007.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Demographically based global income forecasts up to the year 2050

Author

Listed:

Abstract

Demographic projections of age structure provide the best information available on long-term future human resources and demand. In current data fairly robust correlations between age structure and GDP and GDP growth have been discovered. In this paper we use these two facts and study the forecasting properties of demographically based models. Extending the forecasts to 2050 suggests that due to fertility decreases poor countries of today will start to catch up with developed economies in which the growth process will stagnate due to the growth of the elderly population. That remains the case whether or not indications of positive longevity effects are taken into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Malmberg, Bo & Lindh, Thomas, 2004. "Demographically based global income forecasts up to the year 2050," Arbetsrapport 2004:7, Institute for Futures Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:ifswps:2004_007
    Note: ISSN 1652-120X, ISBN 91-89655-56-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.framtidsstudier.se/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/20051201134246fil3Ko7d2IN817xCoI1ml89.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kelley, Allen C & Schmidt, Robert M, 1996. "Saving, Dependency and Development," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 9(4), pages 365-386, November.
    2. Zhang, Jie & Zhang, Junsen & Lee, Ronald, 2003. "Rising longevity, education, savings, and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 83-101, February.
    3. Raouf Boucekkine & David de la Croix & Omar Licandro, 2003. "Early Mortality Declines at the Dawn of Modern Growth," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 401-418, September.
    4. de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 1999. "Life expectancy and endogenous growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 255-263, November.
    5. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2010. "Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia," NBER Chapters, in: The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia, pages 61-89, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, 2002. "Does the Mortality Decline Promote Economic Growth?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 411-439, December.
    7. David, DE LA CROIX & Bo, MALMBERG, 2006. "Growth and Longevity from the Industrial Revolution to the Future of an Aging Society," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2006037, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    8. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(3), pages 419-455, September.
    9. David E. Bloom & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "Geography, Demography, and Economic Growth in Africa," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 207-296.
    10. Ronald D Lee & Andrew Mason & Tim Miller, 1998. "Saving, Wealth, and Population," Working Papers 199805, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    11. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2003. "Longevity and Life‐cycle Savings," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 319-338, September.
    12. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2008. "Population Aging and Economic Growth," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 28027.
    13. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423, October.
    14. Zhang, Junsen & Zhang, Jie & Lee, Ronald, 2001. "Mortality decline and long-run economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 485-507, June.
    15. International Monetary Fund, 1999. "Neglected Heterogeneity and Dynamics in Cross-Country Savings Regressions," IMF Working Papers 1999/128, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Boucekkine, Raouf & de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 2002. "Vintage Human Capital, Demographic Trends, and Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 340-375, June.
    17. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & David Weil, 2010. "Mortality change, the uncertainty effect, and retirement," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 65-91, March.
    18. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, 2003. "A stochastic model of mortality, fertility, and human capital investment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 103-118, February.
    19. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Ryder, Harl E. & Weil, David N., 2000. "Mortality decline, human capital investment, and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 1-23, June.
    20. Peter C. B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1057-1112, September.
    21. David E. Bloom & Richard B. Freeman, 1986. "Population Growth, Labor Supply, and Employment in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 1837, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Leff, Nathaniel H, 1969. "Dependency Rates and Savings Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 886-896, December.
    23. Robert M. Schmidt & Allen C. Kelley, 1996. "Saving, dependency and development," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 9(4), pages 365-386.
    24. Brander, James A & Dowrick, Steve, 1994. "The Role of Fertility and Population in Economic Growth: Empirical Results from Aggregate Cross-National Data," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25.
    25. Mark Perlman, 1975. "Some Economic Growth Problems and the Part Population Policy Plays," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 89(2), pages 247-256.
    26. Barbara Janowitz, 1973. "The effects of demographic factors on age composition and the implications for per capita income," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 10(4), pages 507-515, November.
    27. Thomas Lindh, 2004. "Medium-term forecasts of potential GDP and inflation using age structure information," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 19-49.
    28. Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1992. "Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 69-80, June.
    29. Jie Zhang & Junsen Zhang, 2005. "The Effect of Life Expectancy on Fertility, Saving, Schooling and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(1), pages 45-66, March.
    30. Haque, N. U. & Pesaran, M. H. & Sharma, Sunil, 1999. "Neglected Heterogeneity and Dynamics in Cross-country Savings Regressions," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9904, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    31. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1998. "Forecasting economic processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 111-131, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Fink, Gunther & Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2007. "Does age structure forecast economic growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 569-585.
    2. David de la CROIX, 2014. "Economic Growth," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2014019, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    3. Malmberg, Bo & Lindh, Thomas & Halvarsson, Max, 2005. "Productivity consequences of workforce ageing - Stagnation or a Horndal effect?," Arbetsrapport 2005:17, Institute for Futures Studies.
    4. Arabsheibani, Gholamreza & Gupta, Prashant & Mishra, Tapas & Parhi, Mamata, 2018. "Wage differential between caste groups: Are younger and older cohorts different?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 10-23.
    5. de la Croix, David & Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 2009. "Demographic change and economic growth in Sweden: 1750-2050," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 132-148, March.
    6. Tapas Mishra & Claude Diebolt, 2010. "Demographic volatility and economic growth: convention and beyond," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 25-45, January.
    7. Emese Kreiszné Hudák & Péter Varga & Viktor Várpalotai, 2015. "The macroeconomic impacts of demographic changes in Hungary in the context of the European Union," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 14(2), pages 89-127.
    8. Jovan Žamac & Daniel Hallberg & Thomas Lindh, 2010. "Low Fertility and Long-Run Growth in an Economy with a Large Public Sector [Fécondité basse et croissance à long terme dans une économie à secteur public très développé]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 183-205, May.
    9. Ma Jiyue & Huang Fei & Bruhn Aaron, 2021. "Estimating China’s Future Life Insurance Market," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-16, January.
    10. Luis Eduardo Sandoval, 2018. "Socio-economics characteristics and spatial persistence of homicides in Colombia, 2000-2010," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 45(1 Year 20), pages 51-77, June.
    11. repec:cbh:journl:v:14:y:2015:i:2:p:89-127 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Ngozi M. Nwakeze, 2014. "The Nexus Between Macroeconomics and Demographics: Implications for Sustainable Development," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 45(2), pages 285-298.
    13. Thomas Lindh & Bo Malmberg, 2009. "European Union economic growth and the age structure of the population," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 159-187, August.
    14. Rougoor, Ward & van Marrewijk, Charles, 2015. "Demography, Growth, and Global Income Inequality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 220-232.
    15. Attard, Juergen, 2019. "Public Debt and Economic Growth nexus: A Dynamic Panel ARDL approach," MPRA Paper 96023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Bokwon Lee & Joowoong Park & Jae-Suk Yang, 2018. "Do older workers really reduce firm productivity?," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 29(4), pages 521-542, December.
    17. Francesco C. Billari & Guido Tabellini, 2010. "Italians Are Late: Does It Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 371-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Ignacio Mauleón, 2021. "Aggregated World Energy Demand Projections: Statistical Assessment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-13, July.
    19. Malmberg Anders & Malmberg Bo & Maskell Peter, 2023. "Population age structure – An underlying driver of national, regional and urban economic development," ZFW – Advances in Economic Geography, De Gruyter, vol. 67(4), pages 217-233, December.
    20. Rashmi Kumari & V. Devadas, 2017. "Modelling the dynamics of economic development driven by agricultural growth in Patna Region, India," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 6(1), pages 1-27, December.
    21. Tapas Mishra & Mamata Parhi & Raúl Fuentes, 2015. "How Interdependent are Cross-Country Happiness Dynamics?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 122(2), pages 491-518, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2003. "Longevity and Life‐cycle Savings," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 319-338, September.
    2. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2010. "Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia," NBER Chapters, in: The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia, pages 61-89, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. David E. BLOOM & Jocelyn E. FINLAY, 2009. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 45-64, June.
    4. Miguel Sánchez-Romero, 2013. "The role of demography on per capita output growth and saving rates," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1347-1377, October.
    5. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2004. "Global demographic change : dimensions and economic significance," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 9-56.
    6. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Pia N. Malaney, 1999. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," CID Working Papers 15, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    7. Gehringer, Agnieszka & Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "Longevity And Technological Change," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1471-1503, June.
    8. David, DE LA CROIX & Bo, MALMBERG, 2006. "Growth and Longevity from the Industrial Revolution to the Future of an Aging Society," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2006037, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    9. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2011. "Life expectancy and economic growth: the role of the demographic transition," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 99-133, June.
    10. Sánchez-Romero, Miguel & d׳Albis, Hippolyte & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2016. "Education, lifetime labor supply, and longevity improvements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 118-141.
    11. Echevarria, Cruz A. & Iza, Amaia, 2006. "Life expectancy, human capital, social security and growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(12), pages 2323-2349, December.
    12. Bloom, David E. & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2018. "Health and Economic Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 11939, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Taguchi, Hiroyuki & Latjin, Mirani, 2022. "The effects of demographic dynamics on economic growth in EU economies: A panel vector autoregressive approach," MPRA Paper 113596, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Daishin Yasui, 2012. "Adult Longevity and Growth Takeoff," Discussion Papers 1218, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    15. Dedry, Antoine & Onder, Harun & Pestieau, Pierre, 2017. "Aging, social security design, and capital accumulation," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 145-155.
    16. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Mansfield, Richard K. & Moore, Michael, 2007. "Demographic change, social security systems, and savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 92-114, January.
    17. repec:got:cegedp:141 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Mason, Andrew & Kinugasa, Tomoko, 2008. "East Asian economic development: Two demographic dividends," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-6), pages 389-399.
    19. Strulik, Holger & Werner, Katharina, 2012. "Life Expectancy, Labor Supply, and Long-Run Growth: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-497, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    20. Antoine Bommier, "undated". "Mortality Decline, Impatience and Aggregate Wealth Accumulation with Risk-Sensitive Preferences," Working Papers ETH-RC-14-006, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    demographic projections; global income; long-term forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:ifswps:2004_007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Erika Karlsson (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/framtse.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.