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Demographically based global income forecasts up to the year 2050

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Abstract

Demographic projections of age structure provide the best information available on long-term future human resources and demand. In current data fairly robust correlations between age structure and GDP and GDP growth have been discovered. In this paper we use these two facts and study the forecasting properties of demographically based models. Extending the forecasts to 2050 suggests that due to fertility decreases poor countries of today will start to catch up with developed economies in which the growth process will stagnate due to the growth of the elderly population. That remains the case whether or not indications of positive longevity effects are taken into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Malmberg, Bo & Lindh, Thomas, 2004. "Demographically based global income forecasts up to the year 2050," Arbetsrapport 2004:7, Institute for Futures Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:ifswps:2004_007
    Note: ISSN 1652-120X, ISBN 91-89655-56-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Fink, Gunther & Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2007. "Does age structure forecast economic growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 569-585.
    2. David de la CROIX, 2014. "Economic Growth," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2014019, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    3. Malmberg, Bo & Lindh, Thomas & Halvarsson, Max, 2005. "Productivity consequences of workforce ageing - Stagnation or a Horndal effect?," Arbetsrapport 2005:17, Institute for Futures Studies.
    4. de la Croix, David & Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 2009. "Demographic change and economic growth in Sweden: 1750-2050," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 132-148, March.
    5. Tapas Mishra & Claude Diebolt, 2010. "Demographic volatility and economic growth: convention and beyond," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 25-45, January.
    6. Emese Kreiszné Hudák & Péter Varga & Viktor Várpalotai, 2015. "The macroeconomic impacts of demographic changes in Hungary in the context of the European Union," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 14(2), pages 89-127.
    7. Zamac, Jovan & Hallberg, Daniel & Lindh, Thomas, 2008. "Low fertility and long run growth in an economy with a large public sector," Arbetsrapport 2008:11, Institute for Futures Studies.
    8. repec:cbh:journl:v:14:y:2015:i:2:p:89-127 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Ngozi M. Nwakeze, 2014. "The Nexus Between Macroeconomics and Demographics: Implications for Sustainable Development," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 45(2), pages 285-298.
    10. Thomas Lindh & Bo Malmberg, 2009. "European Union economic growth and the age structure of the population," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 159-187, August.
    11. Rougoor, Ward & van Marrewijk, Charles, 2015. "Demography, Growth, and Global Income Inequality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 220-232.
    12. repec:spr:jecstr:v:6:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1186_s40008-017-0075-x is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Tapas Mishra & Mamata Parhi & Raúl Fuentes, 2015. "How Interdependent are Cross-Country Happiness Dynamics?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 122(2), pages 491-518, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    demographic projections; global income; long-term forecasts;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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