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Demographically based global income forecasts up to the year 2050

Demographic projections of age structure provide the best information available on long-term future human resources and demand. In current data fairly robust correlations between age structure and GDP and GDP growth have been discovered. In this paper we use these two facts and study the forecasting properties of demographically based models. Extending the forecasts to 2050 suggests that due to fertility decreases poor countries of today will start to catch up with developed economies in which the growth process will stagnate due to the growth of the elderly population. That remains the case whether or not indications of positive longevity effects are taken into account.

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Paper provided by Institute for Futures Studies in its series Arbetsrapport with number 2004:7.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 28 Sep 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:ifswps:2004_007
Note: ISSN 1652-120X, ISBN 91-89655-56-7
Contact details of provider: Postal: Institute for Futures Studies, Box 591, SE-101 31 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: 08-402 12 00
Fax: 08-24 50 14
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