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Medium-term forecasts of potential GDP and inflation using age structure information

Listed author(s):
  • Thomas Lindh

    (Uppsala University, Sweden, and Institute for Futures Studies, Stockholm, Sweden)

Registered author(s):

Economic behaviour as well as economic resources of individuals vary with age. Swedish time series show that the age structure contains information correlated to medium-term trends in growth and inflation. GDP gaps estimated by age structure regressions are closely related to conventional measures. Monetary policy is believed to affect inflation with a lag of 1 or 2 years. Projections of the population's age structure are comparatively reliable several years ahead and provide additional information to improve on 3-5 years-ahead forecasts of potential GDP and inflation. Thus there is a potential scope for using age structure based forecasts as an aid to monetary policy formation. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.906
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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 23 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 19-49

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Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:23:y:2004:i:1:p:19-49
DOI: 10.1002/for.906
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

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