IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/jecdev/0105.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Effect of Demography on Inflation in Developing Countries of Asia: Empirical Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Jakir Hussain Mazumder

    (Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, India)

  • Bharat Diwakar

    (Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, India)

Abstract

The United Nations (2022b) predicts that between 2022 and 2050, the share of the elderly population (65 and above) in the Asian region will double. An aging society would create macroeconomic challenges, and several studies, mainly for developed countries, have negatively linked aging with inflation. Given the absence of research in developing countries, especially Asian countries, we attempt to estimate the impact of demography on inflation in Asian developing countries between 1995 and 2019. Our results indicate that the young (0-14) and old populations (70 and above) are deflationary, while working-age populations and very young retirees (65-69) are inflationary. Our findings favor the political economy hypothesis, i.e., age groups influence inflation based on preference. The findings are robust to adding several macroeconomic controls. Our results suggest that the central bank should follow stringent inflation targeting to mitigate the adverse effects of inflation on economic growth and aging.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakir Hussain Mazumder & Bharat Diwakar, 2025. "The Effect of Demography on Inflation in Developing Countries of Asia: Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Development, The Economic Research Institute, Chung-Ang University, vol. 50(1), pages 1-21.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:jecdev:0105
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://jed.cau.ac.kr/archives/50-1/50-1-1.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.
    2. Yoon, Jong-Won & Kim, Jinill & Lee, Jungjin, 2018. "Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 40(1), pages 1-30.
    3. Fair, Ray C & Dominguez, Kathryn M, 1991. "Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1276-1294, December.
    4. Guest, R.S. & McDonald, I.M., 2004. "Demographic Transition and Optimal Saving in Four Asian Countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 1-13, March.
    5. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(3), pages 419-455, September.
    6. Lau, Evan & Moll de Alba, Jaime & Liew, Kim-Hing, 2022. "Debt and economic growth in Asian developing countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 599-612.
    7. Carvalho, Carlos & Ferrero, Andrea & Nechio, Fernanda, 2016. "Demographics and real interest rates: Inspecting the mechanism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 208-226.
    8. Eugene Msizi Buthelezi, 2023. "Impact of Money Supply in Different States of Inflation and Economic Growth in South Africa," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-22, February.
    9. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    10. Katagiri, Mitsuru & Konishi, Hideki & Ueda, Kozo, 2020. "Aging and deflation from a fiscal perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 1-15.
    11. Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 1998. "Age structure and inflation - a Wicksellian interpretation of the OECD data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 19-37, July.
    12. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2015. "Testing Weak Cross-Sectional Dependence in Large Panels," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6-10), pages 1089-1117, December.
    13. Papapetrou, Evangelia & Tsalaporta, Pinelopi, 2020. "The impact of population aging in rich countries: What’s the future?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 77-95.
    14. Park, Cyn-Young & Shin, Kwanho & Kikkawa, Aiko, 2022. "Demographic change, technological advance, and growth: A cross-country analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    15. Tomoki Isa, 2021. "Demographic Effects on Prices: Is Aging Deflationary?," Discussion papers ron342, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
    16. Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 2000. "Can age structure forecast inflation trends?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 31-49.
    17. Daniel Hoechle, 2007. "Robust standard errors for panel regressions with cross-sectional dependence," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 7(3), pages 281-312, September.
    18. P. Gajewski, 2015. "Is ageing deflationary? Some evidence from OECD countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(11), pages 916-919, July.
    19. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2022. "Demographics and Automation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 1-44.
    20. Paula C. A. M. de Albuquerque & Jorge Caiado & Andreia Pereira, 2020. "Population aging and inflation: evidence from panel cointegration," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 469-484, January.
    21. Mikael Juselius & Elod Takats, 2015. "Can demography affect inflation and monetary policy?," BIS Working Papers 485, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Juselius, Mikael & Takáts, Előd, 2021. "Inflation and demography through time," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    23. McMillan, Henry M. & Baesel, Jerome B., 1990. "The macroeconomic impact of the baby boom generation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 167-195.
    24. Ann , Jihee & Park, Cheolbeom, 2022. "Demographic Structure and House Prices in the United States: Reconciliation Using Metropolitan Area Data," Journal of Economic Development, The Economic Research Institute, Chung-Ang University, vol. 47(3), pages 57-71, September.
    25. Fedotenkov, Igor, 2018. "Population ageing and inflation with endogenous money creation," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 392-403.
    26. Yihan Liu & Niklas Westelius, 2017. "The Impact of Demographics on Productivity and Inflation in Japan," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(02), pages 1-16, June.
    27. Doug Andrews & Jaideep Oberoi & Tony Wirjanto & Chenggang Zhou, 2018. "Demography and Inflation: An International Study," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 210-222, April.
    28. N. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A. C. Teixeira & Sandra T. Silva, 2021. "Ageing Population: Identifying the Determinants of Ageing in the Least Developed Countries," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 40(2), pages 187-210, April.
    29. Tarlok Singh, 2023. "Do terms of trade affect economic growth? Robust evidence from India," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(2), pages 491-521, April.
    30. Darya Antonova & Yulia Vymyatnina, 2018. "Inflation and Population Age Structure: The Case of Emerging Economies," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(4), pages 3-25, December.
    31. Abidemi C. Adegboye & Nosakhare L. Arodoye, 2023. "Structural Changes and Employment Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does Demographic Structure Matter?," Journal of Economic Development, The Economic Research Institute, Chung-Ang University, vol. 48(2), pages 143-166.
    32. Diane Macunovich, 2012. "The role of demographics in precipitating economic downturns," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 783-807, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rai, Karan & Garg, Bhavesh, 2024. "Demographic transition and inflation," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(4).
    2. Paula C. A. M. de Albuquerque & Jorge Caiado & Andreia Pereira, 2020. "Population aging and inflation: evidence from panel cointegration," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 469-484, January.
    3. Barbiellini Amidei, Federico & Gomellini, Matteo & Piselli, Paolo, 2019. "The price of demography," MPRA Paper 94435, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Juselius, Mikael & Takáts, Előd, 2021. "Inflation and demography through time," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    5. Fedotenkov, Igor, 2018. "Population ageing and inflation with endogenous money creation," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 392-403.
    6. Juselius, Mikael & Takáts, Előd, 2018. "The enduring link between demography and inflation," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2018, Bank of Finland.
    7. Fedotenkov, Igor, 2015. "Population ageing and prices in an OLG model with money created by credits," MPRA Paper 66056, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Siyan Chen & Saul Desiderio, 2023. "An agent-based framework for the analysis of the macroeconomic effects of population aging," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 393-427, April.
    9. Darya Antonova & Yulia Vymyatnina, 2018. "Inflation and Population Age Structure: The Case of Emerging Economies," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(4), pages 3-25, December.
    10. Thomas Lindh, 2004. "Medium-term forecasts of potential GDP and inflation using age structure information," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 19-49.
    11. Dániel Baksa & Zsuzsa Munkácsi, 2019. "More Gray, More Volatile? Aging and (Optimal) Monetary Policy," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 67, Bank of Lithuania.
    12. Kopecky, Joseph, 2023. "Population age structure and secular stagnation: Evidence from long run data," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    13. Zongwu Cai & Jiazi Chen & Linlin Niu, 2021. "A Semiparametric Model for Bond Pricing with Life Cycle Fundamental," Working Papers 2021-01-06, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    14. Zongwu Cai & Jiazi Chen & Linlin Liu, 2021. "Estimating Impact of Age Distribution on Bond Pricing: A Semiparametric Functional Data Analysis Approach," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202102, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2021.
    15. Papapetrou, Evangelia & Tsalaporta, Pinelopi, 2020. "The impact of population aging in rich countries: What’s the future?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 77-95.
    16. Goh, Soo Khoon & McNown, Robert & Wong, Koi Nyen, 2020. "Macroeconomic implications of population aging: Evidence from Japan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    17. Mikael Juselius & Elod Takats, 2015. "Can demography affect inflation and monetary policy?," BIS Working Papers 485, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Mateo Zokalj, 2016. "The impact of population aging on public finance in the European Union," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 40(4), pages 383-412.
    19. Chen, Jiazi & Hong, Zhiwu & Niu, Linlin, 2025. "Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints: The role of the functional demographic age distribution," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 153-174.
    20. Jaehyeok Kim & Minwoo Jang & Donghyun Shin, 2019. "Examining the Role of Population Age Structure upon Residential Electricity Demand: A Case from Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-19, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Demography; Developing Countries of Asia; Political Economy Hypothesis; Inflation Targeti;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:jecdev:0105. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tram Nguyen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eccaukr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.