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More Gray, More Volatile? Aging and (Optimal) Monetary Policy

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  • Baksa, Dániel
  • Munkácsi, Zsuzsa

Abstract

The empirical and theoretical evidence on the impact of population aging on inflation is mixed, and there is no evidence regarding the volatility of inflation. Using advanced economies’ data and a DSGE-OLG model - a multi-period general equilibrium framework with overlapping generations - we find that aging leads to downward pressure on inflation and higher inflation volatility. Our paper shows how aging affects the short-term cyclical behavior of the economy and the transmission channels of monetary policy. We also examine the interplay between aging and optimal central bank policies. As aging redistributes wealth among generations, generations behave differently, and the labor force becomes more scarce. Our model suggests that aging makes monetary policy less effective, and aggregate demand less elastic to changes in the interest rate. Moreover, in grayer societies, central banks should react more strongly to nominal variables to compensate for higher inflation volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Baksa, Dániel & Munkácsi, Zsuzsa, 2020. "More Gray, More Volatile? Aging and (Optimal) Monetary Policy," Dynare Working Papers 58, CEPREMAP.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpm:dynare:058
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    2. Patrick A. Imam & Mr. Christian Schmieder, 2024. "Aging Gracefully: Steering the Banking Sector through Demographic Shifts," IMF Working Papers 2024/118, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Giuseppe Ciccarone & Francesco Giuli & Enrico Marchetti & Gabriele Maugeri, 2025. "No country for young people: intergenerational burdens of Covid-19 policy responses," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0288, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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