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The price of demography

Author

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  • Barbiellini Amidei, Federico
  • Gomellini, Matteo
  • Piselli, Paolo

Abstract

A few studies lately explored the relationship between changes in the demographic structure and inflation using mainly cross-country analyses. In this paper we investigate how the evolution in the age structure of the population affected price dynamics in Italy, using annual data for a panel of provinces in the period 1982-2016. The within-country approach allows us to wipe out the effects of supranational shocks, as well as to better take into account the effects of monetary policy, main common driver of price dynamics over the medium-term. We use a set of indicators, namely young age, old age and overall dependency ratios, and the share of working age population. Our results suggest that the ongoing ageing process likely contributed to dampening price dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Barbiellini Amidei, Federico & Gomellini, Matteo & Piselli, Paolo, 2019. "The price of demography," MPRA Paper 94435, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:94435
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/94435/1/MPRA_paper_94435.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kenichi Sakura, 2020. "Comments on "Can an ageing workforce explain low inflation?"," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.),Inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 111, pages 81-84, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic change; price dynamics; panel cointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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