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Will ageing lead to a higher real exchange rate for the Netherlands?

Author

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  • Casper van Ewijk
  • Maikel Volkerink

Abstract

Long-term projections for the Netherlands indicate that demand for nontradables – e.g. health care services – will increase relative to supply due to population ageing. If this leads to higher future real exchanges rates this will erode the return of the savings currently made to prepare for ageing. This paper explores the magnitude of potential price effects using a modified version of the ‘two country, four commodity framework’ developed by Obstfeld and Rogoff (2005) to explore the exchange rate effects of the balance of payments reversal in the US. When these price effects are substantial, this may have serious consequences for policies to enhance national saving in the Netherlands.

Suggested Citation

  • Casper van Ewijk & Maikel Volkerink, 2011. "Will ageing lead to a higher real exchange rate for the Netherlands?," CPB Discussion Paper 197, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpb:discus:197
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Fedotenkov, Igor, 2015. "International Trade and Migration: Why Do Migrants Choose Small Countries?," MPRA Paper 66035, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Beissinger, Thomas & Hellier, Joël & Marczak, Martyna, 2020. "Divergence in Labour Force Growth: Should Wages and Prices Grow Faster in Germany?," GLO Discussion Paper Series 620, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    4. Igor Fedotenkov & Irena Mikolajun, 2013. "Migration and Welfare," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 19(1), pages 71-73, February.
    5. Kethaka Galappaththi & Ruwan Jayathilaka & Lochana Rajamanthri & Thaveesha Jayawardhana & Sachini Anuththara & Thamasha Nimnadi & Ridhmi Karadanaarachchi, 2023. "Economy and elderly population, complementary or contradictory: A cross-continental wavelet coherence and cross-country Granger causality study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, January.
    6. Igor Fedotenkov, 2014. "Pension Reform, Factor Mobility and Trade with Country-Specific Goods," De Economist, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 247-262, September.
    7. Barbiellini Amidei, Federico & Gomellini, Matteo & Piselli, Paolo, 2019. "The price of demography," MPRA Paper 94435, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Thomas Beissinger & Joël Hellier & Martyna Marczak, 2025. "Divergence in Labour Force Growth in Open Economies: Should Wages and Prices Grow Faster in Germany?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 67(4), pages 949-988, December.
    9. Mamun, Shamsul Arifeen Khan & Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur & Khanam, Rasheda, 2020. "The relation between an ageing population and economic growth in Bangladesh: Evidence from an endogenous growth model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 14-25.
    10. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A. C. Teixeira & Sandra Silva, 2017. "The Impact Of Population Ageing On Economic Growth: A Bibliometric Survey," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(02), pages 275-296, June.
    11. Max Groneck & Christoph Kaufmann, 2014. "Relative Sectoral Prices and Population Ageing: A Common Trend," Working Paper Series in Economics 69, University of Cologne, Department of Economics.
    12. Max Groneck & Christoph Kaufmann, 2017. "Determinants of Relative Sectoral Prices: The Role of Demographic Change," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(3), pages 319-347, June.
    13. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Sandra T. Silva, 2013. "The impact of population ageing on economic growth: an in-depth bibliometric analysis," FEP Working Papers 505, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    14. Fedotenkov, I., 2012. "Pensions and ageing in a globalizing world. International spillover effects via trade and factor mobility," Other publications TiSEM 8830bc21-4138-4479-8459-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Vaittinen, Risto & Vanne, Reijo, 2020. "Finland’s slow recovery from the financial crisis: A demographic explanation," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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