Labor Market Effects of Population Aging
This paper analyzes effects of population aging on the labor market and determines their broad implications for public policy. It takes Germany as an example, but it equally applies to the other large economies in Continental Europe. The paper argues that, alongside the amply discussed, demographically-determined increase in the contribution and tax burden which is responsible for the ever widening gap between gross and disposable earnings, two other important areas of policy deserve greater attention. First, it is unlikely that the decline in the relative size of the economically active population will be offset by higher capital intensity. Labor productivity will need to increase over and above this mechanism in order to compensate for the impact of population aging on domestic production. Hence, we will need more education and training to speed up human capital formation. Second, the shift in the age structure will also change the structure of demand for goods. This, in turn, will have large effects on the pattern of employment across different sectors of the economy and will require a substantial increase in labor mobility in order to accommodate these structural changes.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2001|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Borsch-Supan, Axel. "Labor Market Effects of Population Aging." Labour, Special Issue 17 (2003): 5-44.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sikandar Siddiqui, 1997. "The pension incentive to retire: Empirical evidence for West Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 463-486.
- Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2002.
"Aging and International Capital Flows,"
Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications
02-27, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
- Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2001. "Aging and International Capital Flows," Discussion Papers 605, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
- Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2002. "Aging and International Capital Flows," MEA discussion paper series 02010, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
- Axel Boersch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2001. "Aging and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 8553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laurence J. Kotlikoff & David A. Wise, 1989.
"Employee Retirement and a Firm's Pension Plan,"
in: The Economics of Aging, pages 279-334
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1990.
"Three Models of Retirement: Computational Complexity Versus Predictive Validity,"
NBER Working Papers
3558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1992. "Three Models of Retirement: Computational Complexity versus Predictive Validity," NBER Chapters, in: Topics in the Economics of Aging, pages 21-60 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fehr, Hans, 2000.
" Pension Reform during the Demographic Transition,"
Scandinavian Journal of Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(3), pages 419-43, June.
- Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
- Richard Disney, 1996. "Can We Afford to Grow Older?," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026204157x, June.
- Borsch-Supan, Axel, 2000. "Incentive effects of social security on labor force participation: evidence in Germany and across Europe," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 25-49, October.
- James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1988.
"The Pension Inducement to Retire: An Option Value Analysis,"
NBER Working Papers
2660, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1990. "The Pension Inducement to Retire: An Option Value Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: Issues in the Economics of Aging, pages 205-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Borsch-Supan, Axel & Schnabel, Reinhold, 1998. "Social Security and Declining Labor-Force Participation in Germany," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 173-78, May.
- Cigno, Alessandro, 1995. "Public pensions with endogenous fertility: Comment on Nishimura and Zhang," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 169-173, May.
- Palacios, Robert & Rocha, Roberto, 1998. "The Hungarian pension system in transition," Social Protection Discussion Papers 20048, The World Bank.
- Riphahn, Regina T. & Schmidt, Peter, 1995. "Determinanten des Rentenzugangs: Lockt der Ruhestand oder drängt der Arbeitsmarkt?," ZEW Discussion Papers 95-10, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Borsch-Supan, Axel, 2000. "A Model under Siege: A Case Study of the German Retirement Insurance System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(461), pages F24-45, February.
- Disney, Richard, 1999. "Notional accounts as a pension reform strategy : an evaluation," Social Protection Discussion Papers 21302, The World Bank.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8640. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.