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Kann die Finanz- und Sozialpolitik die Auswirkungen der Bevölkerungsalterung auf den Arbeitsmarkt lindern?

  • Axel Börsch-Supan

    ()

    (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA))

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    Dieser Beitrag versucht, die wichtigsten Auswirkungen der Bevölkerungsalterung auf den Arbeitsmarkt zu studieren und daraus Konsequenzen für die Finanzpolitik im weitesten Sinne zu ziehen. Der Beitrag zeigt, daß es neben dem sattsam diskutierten alterungsbedingten Anstieg der Beitrags- und Steuerlast, der den Keil zwischen Brutto- und Nettolohn weiter wachsen läßt, zwei weitere wichtige Politikfelder gibt, die zunehmende Beachtung finden sollten. Erstens wird der Rückgang der Erwerbstätigen pro Kopf der Bevölkerung nicht durch Kapitalintensivierung auszugleichen sein. Vielmehr muß die Arbeitsproduktivität über diesen Mechanismus hinaus steigen, um die Auswirkungen der Alterung auf das Inlandsprodukt zu kompensieren. Der stärkeren Akkumulation von Humankapital durch Aus- und Weiterbildung kommt daher ein hoher Stellenwert auch und gerade angesichts der Bevölkerungsalterung zu. Zweitens wird die Altersstrukturverschiebung die Struktur der Güternachfrage ändern und daher sektorale Beschäftigungseffekte induzieren. Diese erweisen sich als groß, so daß eine höhere Mobilität der Beschäftigten als derzeit erforderlich ist. Sie sollte durch die Finanzpolitik zumindest nicht behindert werden.

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    Paper provided by Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy in its series MEA discussion paper series with number 02012.

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    Date of creation: 23 Jan 2002
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    Handle: RePEc:mea:meawpa:02012
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    1. Borsch-Supan, Axel, 2000. "Incentive effects of social security on labor force participation: evidence in Germany and across Europe," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 25-49, October.
    2. Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1990. "Three Models of Retirement: Computational Complexity Versus Predictive Validity," NBER Working Papers 3558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2001. "Aging and International Capital Flows," Discussion Papers 605, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
    4. Borsch-Supan, Axel & Schnabel, Reinhold, 1998. "Social Security and Declining Labor-Force Participation in Germany," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 173-78, May.
    5. Palacios, Robert & Rocha, Roberto, 1998. "The Hungarian pension system in transition," Social Protection Discussion Papers 20048, The World Bank.
    6. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
    7. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
    8. Cigno, Alessandro, 1995. "Public pensions with endogenous fertility: Comment on Nishimura and Zhang," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 169-173, May.
    9. Sikandar Siddiqui, 1997. "The pension incentive to retire: Empirical evidence for West Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 463-486.
    10. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Lührmann, Melanie, 2000. "Prinzipien der Renten- und Pensionsbesteuerung," Discussion Papers 584, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
    11. Borsch-Supan, Axel, 2000. "A Model under Siege: A Case Study of the German Retirement Insurance System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(461), pages F24-45, February.
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