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Renteneintrittsentscheidungen in Deutschland: Langfristige Auswirkungen verschiedener Reformoptionen

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  • Barbara Berkel

    ()

  • Axel Börsch-Supan

    ()

    (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA))

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    Abstract

    Das Rentenzugangsalter ist durch die Finanzierungsprobleme der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung wieder in den Blickpunkt gerückt. In diesem Papier werden die Auswirkungen verschiedener Reformoptionen auf die Wahl des Renteneintritts älterer Arbeitnehmer untersucht. Im Vordergrund stehen die langfristigen Wirkungen der seit 1992 geänderten Rentengesetzgebung und die im Rahmen der so genannten „Rürup-Kommission“ diskutierten Reformoptionen. Unsere Simulationen zeigen, dass die im Rahmen der Rentenreform von 1992 eingeführten Abschläge bei Frühpensionierungen das durchschnittliche effektive Verrentungsalter für Männer langfristig um etwas weniger als zwei Jahre anheben werden. Die von der "Rürup-Kommission" vorgeschlagene Anhebung sämtlicher Altersgrenzen um zwei Jahre würde das durchschnittliche Rentenalter für Männer um gut acht Monate erhöhen. Würden die Abschläge darüber hinaus von 3,6% auf 6% pro Jahr erhöht, hätte dies einen Anstieg des Pensionierungsalters um fast zwei weitere Jahre zur Folge. Für Frauen sind diese Effekte deutlich schwächer.

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    Paper provided by Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy in its series MEA discussion paper series with number 03031.

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    Date of creation: 01 Jul 2003
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    Handle: RePEc:mea:meawpa:03031
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    • Z00 - Other Special Topics - - General - - - General

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    1. James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1990. "The Pension Inducement to Retire: An Option Value Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: Issues in the Economics of Aging, pages 205-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Axel Börsch-Supan & Reinhold Schnabel & Simone Kohnz & Giovanni Mastrobuoni, 2004. "Micro-Modeling of Retirement Decisions in Germany," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Micro-Estimation, pages 285-344 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. John Rust & Christopher Phelan, 1997. "How Social Security and Medicare Affect Retirement Behavior in a World of Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 781-832, July.
    4. David M. Cutler & Louise Sheiner, 1999. "Demographics and medical care spending: standard and non-standard effects," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Axel H. Boersch-Supan, 2001. "Incentive Effects of Social Security under an Uncertain Disability Option," NBER Chapters, in: Themes in the Economics of Aging, pages 281-310 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Sikandar Siddiqui, 1997. "The pension incentive to retire: Empirical evidence for West Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 10(4), pages 463-486.
    7. Borsch-Supan, Axel & Schnabel, Reinhold, 1998. "Social Security and Declining Labor-Force Participation in Germany," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 173-78, May.
    8. Palmer, Edward, 2000. "The Swedish pension reform model : framework and issues," Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes 23086, The World Bank.
    9. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2001. "Incentive Effects of Social Security Under an Uncertain Disability Option," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 01-42, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    10. Borsch-Supan, Axel, 2000. "A Model under Siege: A Case Study of the German Retirement Insurance System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(461), pages F24-45, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:zbw:rwirep:0071 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Schurer, Stefanie, 2008. "Discrete Heterogeneity in the Impact of Health Shocks on Labour Market Outcomes," Ruhr Economic Papers 71, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Christina Benita Wilke, 2004. "Ein Simulationsmodell des Rentenversicherungssystems: Konzeption und ausgewählte Anwendungen von MEA-PENSIM," MEA discussion paper series 04048, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    4. Fabián Lange, 2003. "Not Working? The West German Labor Market 1964-2001," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(121), pages 495-504.
    5. Axel Börsch-Supan & Anette Reil-Held & Christina Benita Wilke, 2003. "How to make a Defined Benefit System Sustainable: The Sustainability Factor in the German Benefit Indexation Formula," MEA discussion paper series 03037, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    6. Axel Börsch-Supan & Anette Reil-Held & Christina Benita Wilke, 2003. "Der Nachhaltigkeitsfaktor und andere Formelmodifikationen zur langfristigen Stabilisierung des Beitragssatzes zur GRV," MEA discussion paper series 03030, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    7. Stefanie Schurer, 2008. "Discrete Heterogeneity in the Impact of Health Shocks on Labour Market Outcomes," Ruhr Economic Papers 0071, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.

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