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Demographischer Wandel und internationale Finanzmärkte

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  • Hans Fehr
  • Sabine Jokisch

Abstract

The present article surveys recent studies which analyse specific aspects of the impact of demographic changes on international capital markets. We first present the most recent population trends in important OECD countries, then we discuss the consequences for aggregate world savings, interest rates, asset prices and capital flows. Overall, the existing theoretical and empirical evidence is highly inconsistent. While it seems to be most likely that population ageing will decrease world interest rates and increase the risk premium, some recent simulation models yield exactly the opposite results. Finally, if Asian countries continue to grow as in the past, they will supply the capital for Europe by the middle of this century. Copyright 2006 die Autoren Journal compilation 2006, Verein für Socialpolitik und Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch, 2006. "Demographischer Wandel und internationale Finanzmärkte," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(4), pages 501-517, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:perwir:v:7:y:2006:i:4:p:501-517
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fehr, Hans & Jokisch, Sabine & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2008. "Fertility, mortality and the developed world's demographic transition," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 455-473.
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    Cited by:

    1. Spahn Heinz-Peter, 2007. "Vermögenspreise, Alterung und Ersparnis / Asset Prices, Aging and Saving: Gibt es einen demografisch bedingten „Asset Meltdown“? / Should We Expect an Asset Meltdown for Demographic Reasons?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 227(1), pages 102-106, February.
    2. Busl, Claudia & Iliewa, Zwetelina & Jokisch, Sabine & Kappler, Marcus & Roscher, Thomas & Schindler, Felix & Schleer, Frauke, 2012. "Endbericht an das Bundesministerium der Finanzen zum Forschungsauftrag fe 11/11: "Sparen und Investieren vor dem Hintergrund des demografischen Wandels"," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research, number 110554.
    3. Spahn, Peter, 2016. "Population growth, saving, interest rates and stagnation: Discussing the Eggertsson-Mehrotra model," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 04-2016, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.

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